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Pakistan a bet at 2.727/4
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Rain and lights key factors
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India finding their way
Pakistan v India
Saturday 2 September, 10:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Pakistan v India team news
Pakistan have a decent balance about them thanks to a strong top and tail with bat and ball. There's nowt wrong with their top four and three outstanding pace options.
Babazar Azam obviously makes the headlines but Imam-ul-Haq has been ultra reliable as opener. Shahen Afridi and Haris Rauf lead the pace attack alongside Naseem Shah.
If there are doubts - and there always are - Iftikhar as the sixth bowling option could be vulnerable. He also needs to do it with the bat against the big boys. A ton versus Nepal at least suggests he's in nick. Alongside the exciting but inexperienced Agha Salman in the middle order, India will reckon they have a route to the tail.
Probable XI: Fakhar, Imam, Babar, Rizwan, Salman, Iftikhar, Shadab, Nawaz, Nasee, Afridi, Rauf
World Cup favourites India have problems to solve, notably at No 4. Can Shreyas Iyer return in best form after back injury? Or will Suryakumar Yadav get another chance to crack ODI? Tilak Varma might be the wisest choice.
They're not sure on the wicketkeeper role. KL Rahul is still injured so Ishan Kishan gets a chance to nail the position.
Jasprit Bumrah is at least fit again and he strengthens a bowling attack in need of his skill. Mohammed Siraj has done superbly, though, in his absence and it would be harsh were he to miss out.
Possible XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Shreyas, Ishan, Hardik, Jadeja, Kuldeep, Shami, Bumrah, Siraj
Pakistan v India pitch report
After Sri Lanka's win chasing under lights in Palekelle the win percentage for the team batting second at the venue has dipped just under 59%. It's still a factor, though, for this seismic clash, particularly as there is weather around. The percentage chance of rain during game time varies from 69% to 89%.
On the 50-over par line bets are void if we lose overs. Five of the last ten first-innings have produced scores of more than 290 but considering conditions bowlers should be to the fore.
Pakistan v India match odds
India are 1.574/7 with Pakistan 2.727/4. If we take the pitch and conditions out of the equation for moment and focus purely on the man versus man situation, it is unlikely you come to the conclusion that India are the right price.
Pakistan are settled, in form and fitness. India, in time, will probably tick all those boxes. But there's work to do.
The importance of this fixture may no longer affect Pakistan. In the past the occasion has got to them but wins against their rivals in the last Asia Cup and 2021 T20 World CUp has given them confidence.
And with the rain and lights reducing any supposed talent gulf, they should be recognised as value for what is the biggest single betting event outside of a final in any sport.
Pakistan v India player bets
The big guns are boosted for top bat with Sportsbook. Babar and Virat Kohli are upped to 11/43.75. Babar has a 30% career win rate and Kohli 27%. With 11/43.75 implied probability of 26.7% both could be considered wagers. Babar has eight wins in 21 in the last two years and 16/54.20 chance Imam four in 17.
There's a 3% swing in our favour on Babar's record for top match bat at 11/26.50 while Kohli is bang on the right price at 4/15.00.
Shubman Gill has been a go-to bet in the top-bat market but against weaker opposition. This is a big test for him and his record against better attacks doesn't quite stand up. A short of his runs at 27.5 at 5/61.84 has appeal.
Afridi and Bumrah are 11/43.75 and 16/5] for top team bowler respectively. They are 10/111.00 and 14/115.00 for man of the match with an eye on bowling conditions.