India v Pakistan Asia Cup Tips: Pakistan not the worst wager at big odds

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Rauf is an option for Pakistan

Ed Hawkins previews the Big One from Dubai on Sunday with the key stats, pitch reports and best bets including picks at [14/1] and [11/1]...

  • Indo-Pak a betting blockbuster

  • Dubai pitch may be leveller
  • Pakistan runs short if quote right
  • India sort top order

  • Hasan & Hardik value


India v Pakistan
Sunday 14 September, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

India v Pakistan Asia Cup T20 team news

India didn't break sweat in swotting aside UAE. The game didn't last 18 overs as they took ten wickets for 57 and then needed 4.3 overs in the chase. 

The main takeaway was how they decided to sort the batting order. Abhishek Sharma and Shubman Gill were given the opening roles with Sanju Samson down at a probable No 5. Hardik Pandya and Shivam Dube may rotate at Nos 6 and 7.

They also picked three spinners meaning they had the balance of six bowlers. Axar Patel at No 8 means they are not hamstrung by a long tail.  In short, it's very strong. 

Probable India XI: Abhishek, Gill, Sky, Tilak, Samson, Tilak, Dube, Axar, Kuldeep, Bumrah, Varun

Pakistan rolled Oman for 67 when defending 160. It's a scorecard which highlights their strength and weakness. They are going to struggle to put down massive scores but the bowling keeps them keen.

They also favour spin. With four options against Oman it will be interesting to see if they find room for an extra pacer. In the past they have looked to give India's batters the hurry up so Haris Rauf could be under consideration. 

Mohammad Haris, the keeper, had played in a tri-series as a finisher but was promoted to No 3. Hasan Nawaz's power at No 6 may be make or break for Pakistan.

Possible Pakistan XI: Farhan, Ayub, Haris, Zaman, Salman, Hasan, Nawaz/Rauf, Faheem, Afridi, Muqeem, Abrar


India v Pakistan Asia Cup T20 pitch report

In the last ten T20i in Dubai the average first-innings score is 146 witha 60% bias for the side batting first. In the last 30 the respective numbers are 137 and 42%. It's fair to say from those studies we can probably rely on this being a surface which keeps the bowlers interested. 

India (last ten) average 196 and 155 for and against and Pakistan 166 and 141. There is a temptation to strongly consider under Pakistan runs if low 160s but we suspect the Exchange line for 20-overs may be set at around the 155 mark. 


India v Pakistan T20  match prediction

India-Pakistan contests are blockbuster betting affairs and when all the money in the pot is considered (back, grey etc), it often works out as the single biggest betting turnover of the year. There could be another two in this Asia Cup series.

But what it isn't, according to the match odds, is competitive. India are 1.374/11 on an early show with Pakistan 3.5551/20. The head-to-heads suggest that is a little unfair.

If we ignore Pakistan's defeat in New York when they had to bat first on a minefield, it's two wins each from the previous four. And two of those came in Dubai.

The big gulf is with the bat and if the Dubai surface can quieten that India batting, Pakistan can be considered worth a small interest at inflated odds.


India v Pakistan Asia Cup player bets

Hardik Pandya has a win rate of 19% since the start of the last World Cup for top India bat. The 14s feels harsh on ability and win rate, then. Again, we hope the Dubai surface means that he has to come in and make a meaningful contribution. For the same reason we have to look at the middle- to lower-order for Pakistan. The potential for big blows from the blade of Hasan makes the 11/112.00 standout. Hasan could well hit his first one straight up in the air but he is capable of the extraordinary. Faheem Ashraf is a long-time favourite of these pages. Thirty-odd could win this market so the 22s feels big.


Now read the best cricket tips here!


Recommended bets

(1pts) back Pakistan 3.5551/20

(0.25pts) Back Hardik Pandya top India bat 14/115.00

(0.25pts) Back Hasan Nawaz top Pakistan bat 11/112.00

Ed Hawkins

Ed is an award-winning cricket writer and is Betfair's resident tipster on every single cricket tournament we cover.

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