India v Australia Third ODI Tips: Aussie form a worry for World Cup

• India 1.768/11 for 3-0 sweep

• Rajkot pitch full of runs

• Smith boosted to 7/24.50

India v Australia
Sunday 24 September, 09:00
TV: Live on TNT

India v Australia Third ODI team news

India have resisted the temptation to pick a full-strength team with the series already won. Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli look certain to play but other first-choice players have been left out.

Shubman Gill and Mohammad Shami will be rested while Hardik Pandya will not be risked. Shardul Thakur is also absent while Axar Patel continues his recovery from an injury which threatens his participation in the World Cup.

Ravi Ashwin could audition again for Axar's spot if he is not fit but it would be a surprise if Washington Sundar wasn't given a chance. Kuldeep Yadav may get a game with Ravi Jadeja stepping out. Mukesh Kumar, Mohammed Siraj and Praish Krishna could be the pace options.

Possible XI: Rohit, Gaikwad, Kohli, Iyer, Rahul, Yadav, Sundar, Kuldeep, Siraj, Prasidh, Mukesh

Australia could have Glenn Maxwell available as they seek to improve their balance. Maxwell's fitness has been patchy since a broken leg and there are doubts whether he can cope with a 100-over game.

Mitchell Starc may also come back following injury. If not, there are worries about fitness issues impacting their World Cup campaign. Skip Pat Cummins sat out game two.

Mitchell Marsh may also return to the opening berth at the expense of Matt Short if Maxwell plays. Ashton Agar is unavailable.

Possible XI: Warner, M Marsh, Smith, Labuschagne, Carey, Maxwell, Green, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Zampa

India v Australia Third ODI pitch report

There have been only three ODI played at Rajkot but we still expect runs. The run rate in those games has been more than 6 and the three first-innings scores read: 325, 270 and 340.

Both teams to score 275 has collapsed from even money to 4/91.44 with sportsbook from game one. Both for 300 is 23/103.30 but we do have concerns about the Australia batting in a chase after they were powderpuff in reply in Indore. Instead, betting India for 320 or more at around that even money mark makes sense.

Three years ago on this ground India posted 340 against Australia and won by 36 runs.

India v Australia Third ODI match odds

India are 1.768/11 with Australia 2.285/4. It's a price about the hosts which could be considered chunky given the ease with which they have won the first two matches.

It's also indicative of what to expect in the World Cup. At full-strength India will be going off sub 1.705/7 against all opposition.

Australia need to bat first to avoid not being a whopping price at the break one suspects. Their batters should be capable of at least making it a choice affair, so that is a trade option.

In an ideal world, India chase and we get some inflation on that price and we back them to get up.

But this game is very much a watching brief for the World Cup as far as Australia are concerned. It's time they turned up and produced something to prevent their campaign starting under a cloud.

India v Australia Third ODI player bets

Virat Kohli boosted to 7/24.50 with Sportsbook but his two-year win rate stands at 22%. Rohit Sharma is 3/14.00 but before you bet do bear in mind he wins at 18% which is not even 4/15.00.

The boost to Steve Smith's price to 7/24.50 does rate a bet, however. He should be close to full throttle after recovering from a wrist problem and he is winning at a rate of 26.6. That 4.4% points in our favour. Not a bad chunk considering his ability and not be missed.