India v Australia First ODI Tips: India rare value for home win

• India surprising value

• Mohali pitch could be a road

• Both teams to bust 275

India v Australia
Friday 22 September, 09:00
TV: Live on TNT

India v Australia team news

India will bring in the big guns for game three so there is no Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli or Hardik Pandya. Axar Patel is suffering from an injury and therein lies the opportunity.

Washignton Sundar and Ravi Ashwin could audition to force their way in if Axar doesn't make it for the World Cup. KL Rahul will lead. Ruturaj Gaikwad or Ishan Kishan could open the batting.

The pace bowling is at full strength but one from Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj could sit out with Prasidh Krishna likely to be on the reserve list for the big one.

Possible XI: Ishan, Gill, Iyer, Rahul, Yadav, Jadeja, Sundar, Ashwin, Thakur Bumrah/Siraj, Krishna

Australia are far from ready for the World Cup with Pat Cummins, the skip, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell and Mitchell Starc all coming into the squad off the back of injuries.

Maxwell does not arrive until Friday so is out of game one. It wouldn't be a huge surprise if the rest played here but you never know. With warm-ups to come post this series Australia may be loathe to rush players back.

Mitchell Marsh should open the batting with David Warner as Travis Head is out with a broken hand. Marnus Labuschagne could get the opportunity to replace him in the squad.

Possible XI: Warner, M Marsh, Smith, Labuschagne, Carey, Green, Maxwell/Stoinis, Cummins/Abbott, Starc/Ellis, Hazlewood, Zampa

India v Australia First ODI pitch report

There has been consistent fast scoring in Mohali throughout the eras of white ball cricket. When these sides met at the venue in 2019, India's 359 failed to be adequate. Both teams to score 275 at evens with Sportsbook is of immediate interest while both to score 300 at 3/14.00 will also prove popular.

India v Australia First ODI match odds

Australia beat India in India earlier this year in an ODI series so there is little truck with the notion that they struggle in these conditions. The match odds market appears to take that into consideration - and then some.

India are marginal outsiders at 2.001/1 with Australia 1.991/1. It has to be a first that India are not odds-on for a game at home.

It is therefore difficult to justify a wager on the Aussies. They are unlikely to be at full throttle while the India line-up remains strong. They're no longer as reliant on Rohit and Kohli as you might think.

India v Australia First ODI player bets

There are win-rate wagers to take advantage of on the top run-scorer markets. Rahul gives us a chunky edge at 9/25.50 with Sportsbook. The stand-in skip roared back to form in the Asia Cup.

For Australia, both Steve Smith and David Warner have win rates over the last two years at 30%. Smith is 13/53.60 and Warner 11/43.75. Considering the greater edge is with Warner, who is tuned up, fully fit and ready, a sensible stake on the opener makes most sense.