- England level series at 1-1
- But Sri Lanka are under-rated in the betting
- RPS pitch a spinners's paradise
- Time for Nissanka to deliver
- 25th overand onwards is when spinners can take charge
Sri Lanka v England
Tuesday 27 January, 09.00
TV: Live on TNT
Sri Lanka v England third ODI team news
Sri Lanka could do with Wanindu Hasaranga in this XI but there is no news on whether he's out of the side for tactical or fitness reasons. It's probably the latter because Pavan Rathnayake, down at No 7, doesn't make a huge amount of sense. If Hasaranga isn't fit, then Kamindu Mendis makes more sense with his all-round abilities.
Maheesh Theekshana would be another option but that would weaken the batting. Theekshana may come into contention if Sri Lanka felt they needed even more spin. Pacer Pramod Madushan could step out with Janith Liyanage able to bowl seam.
Possible SL XI: Nissanka, Mishara, Kusal, Asalanka, Dhananjaya, Liyanage, Kamindu/Hasaranga, Wellalage, Vandersay, Asitha, Madushan
England were without the inured Zak Crawley as they levelled the series. it was a blessing as they were able to add Will Jacks, who bowled his full quota on a spin-heavy surface. Rehan Ahmed opened for England in Crawley's absence in a surprise move.
When you have batters available of the hitting ability of Jacks and Jos Buttler it was certainly left-field. But they may as well continue with Rehan in that slot so long as he is given the freedom to hit. A thrashed 20-odd could be vital.
England possible XI: Rehan, Duckett, Root, Brook, Bethell, Buttler, acks, S Curran, J Overton, Dawson, Rashid
Sri Lanka v England third ODI pitch report
England skip Harry Brook has had a rant about the quality of the RPS pitch. Anyone would think they were 2-0 down. Perhaps showing grit and discipline to Brook is such an anathema that he can't recognise the opportunity to talk up his side instead. England were excellent in going after an extremely tricky target of 220.
The surface in Colombo is not expected to be any different. More spin will be bowled. Indeed, it was something of a surprise that more than 19 overs of pace were used in game two.
We know that the spinners will really take hold after the 25-over mark so that is the time to factor in the collapse to runs bets in-play. Go under for 100-125 from that point on via the Betfair Exchange runs market. for cheap lays
Sri Lanka v England third ODI match prediction
Sri Lanka are outsiders at 2.407/5 again with England 1.715/7. There is no justificatiuon for the market rating the sides in this way. At the very least the hosts should be level pegging in a choice affair.
There has been an overreaction to England's strong chase in game two. But with another 20-30 on the board Sri Lanka would have expected to go very close indeed.
One can bet Sri Lanka now, safe in the knowledge they are more than competitive at the odds or, if they bat first, bet them at the break. In game one with 271 on the board they were odds-against. The entry point for Sri Lanka batting first is a score of anything more than 240. Defeat last time was probably an outlier at this venue with 248, 244, 281 and 214 all defended previously.
Back Sri Lanka (if batting 1st)
Sri Lanka v England third ODI player bets
Pathum Niussanka his yet to win on top bat this series but he is in the win zone. Take Sportsbook's 3/14.00 that he delivers. There remains a small chunk in our favour on win rate and it could be that Nissanka recognises that he has to go hard before the spinners send one down with his name on.
Batting up top and in powerplays when the surface is at its best following the heavy roller is an advantage. Nissanka doesn't appear to be out of touch and will be disappointed not to have gone on for a score after starts of 26 and 21.
Back Pathum Nissanka top SL bat