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Sundy 27 September, 10:30
TV: Sky Sports
England v Sri Lanka third ODI team news
England have confirmed that Jos Buttler will miss the final match of the series with a hamstring injury. Buttler retired hurt with the issue in the defeat at Leeds in game two only to come back at the death of the chase, adding only two more runs.
Buttler's place will go to Jordan Cox, who will also keep wicket. Dan Lawrence has been called up as cover in case another player is struck down.
In the machinations it was probably missed that England missed a trick by sending Buttler back in. He couldn't run. It was a bizarre tactical call when they needed more than ten an over, restricting them to only boundaries and piling the pressure on Will Jacks.
It has been a bit of a surprise that England have asked their pace attack to go to the well again for each of the two games so far. Presumably with the series on the line they don't bother to rest them now. Rehan Ahmed may come under pressure for his place from Liam Dawson.
Probable XI: Banton, Duckett, Root, Brook, Cox, Jacks, Rehan/Dawson, Atkinson, J Overton, Archer, Tongue
Sri Lanka have fought hard in this series and after a decent show in game one they got their rewards at Headingley in what turned out to be a relatively comfortable victory.
They closed out the chase expertly with pacers Eshan Malinga, Dilshan Madushanka and Asitha Fernando doing the business. It is unlikely they make any changes to the XI given the surge in confidence.
One would probably prefer an extra spinner in the XI with Wanindu Hasaranga and Maheesh Theekshana on the sidelines but Charith Asalanka bowled six useful overs of tweak.
Probable XI: Nissanka, Kamindu, Kusal, Rathnayake, Asalanka, Liyanage, Wellalage, Colombage, Malinga, Asitha, Madushanka
England v Sri Lanka third ODI pitch report
There have been only three ODI at The Oval in the last five years with a range of outcomes on runs. England were shot out for 110 versus India in 2022, the hosts beat New Zealand easily with 368 posted a year later while last year West indies' 251 was chased by England under D-L Method.
Two games this summer in the domestic One-Day Cup saw first-innings scores of 286 and 298. The previous year saw innings of 308 and 160. A trendless up-and-down picture is beginning to emerge.
Sometimes as a gambler it is just best to expect there isn't a clear trend to focus on. We could look back further in scorecard histories but is it really relevant what was happening eight years ago or more?
What might be useful is recognising that runs are not guaranteed. Many consider The Oval to be a great batting wicket but that has not always been the case (the scores looked at show that at least). It can keep the bowlers keen and if conditions allow there has been good seam movement for the side bowling first.
A forecast grey, cloudy start could encourage the team wining the toss to stick the other in. England may well be confident of troubling the Sri Lankans will early movement. Betfair Sportsbook's total first-innings rune lines of 289.5 may have the feel of an unders play.
England v Sri Lanka third ODI match prediction
As discussed for game two, Sri Lanka were only a wager if they had the advantage of batting first on the road-like Leeds surface. That they managed to exploit those conditions is to their credit. Scoreboard pressure allayed with good work in the field meant they held on for a good win.
The expectation is that England hit back. And it could time to be playing derivative England win markets. The 8/151.53 that the hosts take the series and hit most sixes in the match to the bargain is an option. Throwing in fours to the mix as well gives you an 11/102.11 chance.
The trade chance on Sri Lanka has been discussed over the first two games. However, there doesn't seem a clear strategy for this one and it is very much a wait-and-see approach in terms of conditions. We would worry about them batting first under cloud cover and it may be they don't quite have the skill to punish England bowling first.
England v Sri Lanka third ODI player tips
The wait for a Joe Root top-bat win goes on. He came into this series busting 30% but appears to have problems picking Colombage, the Sri Lankan spinner. He's got him twice in the series. With Kusal Mendis talked up for game two and obliging with a ton, it may be wise to keep faith with an elite player getting closer to the win zone.
The 11/43.75 is just about fair enough. For Sri Lanka, Janith Liyanage, a solid performer on this market, catches the eye at 15/28.50 with the possibility of a middle-order rescue job in the offing.
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