England v Sri Lanka Second ODI Tips: Tourists have route to victory but must bat first

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Runs expected on leeds road

Ed Hawkins has the best stats, angles, trends and trades for game two under lights at Headingley on Thursday

 


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Thursday 24 September, 12:30
TV: Sky Sports

England v Sri Lanka second ODI team news

England have a 1-0 lead after winning in Durham. The slightly fraught nature of that success may have taken them by surprise, however.

The batting failed to fire with a total of 265 meat and drink to more accomplished chasers. From a position of strength at 182 for three they fell away badly.

Picking their all-star test attack was a bit of a surprise. It remains to be seen whether Jofra Arhcer, Josh Tongue and Gus Atkinson go again. Sonny Baker stands by.

Rehan Ahmed came in ahead of the withdrawn Adil Rashid and batted No 7. He was pricey with the ball and out-bowled by five-wicket Will Jacks so Laim Dawson may come into contention.

Possible XI: Banton, Duckett, Root, Brook, Buttler, jacks, Rehan, J Overton, Atkinson, Archer/Tongue, Baker

Sri Lanka would have been cock-a-hoop at the break after debutant Sachindu Colombage's three wickets turned the game on its head. But they failed to get over the line batting second in Durham and, in truth, they never looked like making it.

They have to hope they improve for the run. There is little wrong with the balance of the XI. Although they used only five bowlers Janith Liyanage and Charith Asalanka are other options.

They could make a switch, though, if they feel England are vulnerable to spin post Colombage. Maheesh Theekshana and Wanindu Hasaranga were absent with one likely to come back. Dushmnatha Chameera looks vulnerable having had a disappointing tour.

Possible XI: Nissanka, Kamindu, Kusal, Pavan, Asalanka, Liyanage, Wellalage, Hasaranga, Colombage, Asitha, Madushanka


England v Sri Lanka second ODI pitch report 

Most would expect runs in Headingley, which is the best batting wicket in the country. Runs in the Blast and The Hundred have been guaranteed. But we've yet to see this form translated into ODI, mostly because there have been only three in the 2020s.

The first was washed out with South Africa well set at 159 for two, Australia beat England posting 270 in 2024 while last summer, again in September, England were razed for 131 against South Africa.

It could be that fears over a more sluggish pitch are realised - as they were then - that the square had just had too much traffic to cope with over a long summer. And we can't be too gung-ho anyway about runs because we have one batting team which just cannot be relied upon.

Betfair Sportsbook's over/unders quote for first-innings runs would be a play at 290.5 perhaps pre-toss but if you took that price and Sri Lanka ended up batting first you'd have a dreadful wager.

It is the same for the sixes market at over 11.5 and England sixes at 6.5. They are both toss-dependant markets and it's important to be aware so as not to be caught out.


England v Sri Lanka second ODI match prediction 

Has Sri Lanka's best chance of victory gone? Probably. They had the chase bias in their favour at Durham and then worked hard to have a moderate target to chase. And from there it all went wrong.

One fears for them at Leeds. If we get another road, it is hard to see how their weak batting possibly keeps up with England, who just have too much power.

Sri Lanka, surely, have to hope for grip and turn for spin bowlers and then to use their one point of difference in the series to try to nick a win. Thirty overs from Messrs Wellalage, Colombage and one of Hasaranga or Theekshana would seem a must with Asalanka perhaps pitching in, too. Sri Lanka only really know how to win matches on slow turners at home. But they could fool themselves into thinking this is a burner and would probably go a lot closer than just serving up pace to be smashed out of the ground.

What is true is that Sri Lanka have to bat first to be even considered. There is a toss bias for the side batting first (expected given scoreboard pressure). With that in favour and the make-up of the team discussed might make them a trade option. Again, we're not looking for the win just for them to be competitive.

From a starting point batting first of 7.807/1 on the Betfair Exchange, they might have a shout at cutting those odds in half. Doubling the stake on the lay button at 3.5 is the strategy. Make sure in-play is checked when placing an order.

if Sri Lanka chase again it could be a walloping. There have been only five day-nighters in Leeds but it doesn't take a pessimist to worry that if the ball darts it could be over quickly.


England v Sri Lanka second ODI player tips 

Joe Root backers are waiting on a win. He was poised in game one before being bowled by Colombage. There's nothing wrong with the 3/14.00 that Betfair Sportsbook offer. Jofra Archer went wicketless at the Riverside in a surprise but he is statistically the favourite on this market in terms of how often he wins. Sportsbook go 11/43.75.

We noted that Wellage was a runner for top bat and big prices lower down the order in our preview. He won, pipping Kusal Mendis. Kusal is the top ranked in terms of win rate and on a flatter wicket he may be difficult to stop. The 4/15.00 is a good value option.


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Ed Hawkins

Ed is an award-winning cricket writer and is Betfair's resident tipster on every single cricket tournament we cover.

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