England v Sri Lanka ODI Tips: Combine Root and Kusal in 14/1 gamble

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Thursday 29 October, 08.00
TV: Sky Sports

England v Sri Lanka ODI team news

Sri Lanka booked their spot in the tri-series final with an impressive dismantling of Pakistan. Dilshan Madushanka was the star, taking five for 34 as the contest was effectively ended by the break. Pakistan could manage only 110.

Whether Sri Lanka go with the same XI or rest key men ahead of Saturday's final is key. It may also be worth considering whether they can improve by replacing Sahan Arachige, who has largely been a passenger. Two wickets against Pakistan might save him but Maheesh Theekshana would be a more useful option with the ball. Or hitter Kamil Mishara could be added at No 3, protecting Kusal Mendis from the new ball as his struggles have been plain to see.

Theekshana, Sachindu Colombage or Dushmantha Chameera are possible replacements for Asitha Fernando to keep the latter fresh. Both Theekshana and Colombage offer spin threats.

Possible XI: Kamindu, Avishka, Mishara, Kusal, Rathanayake, Liyanage, Shanaka, Wellalage, Theekshana, Malinga, Madushanka

England, have, of course been knocked out having failed to win a single game. It has been an embarrassing and chastening tour. Indeed, it is a study in failure as to how they have managed to be 0-3.

In the first match they failed to chase a moderate 302, collapsing in a heap to SLA spin. Then they failed to defend 429, a collective headloss in the field rarely seen. A third loss followed when they were rolled for 241 by Pakistan and then repeating the same errors in the field.

Certainly the last two losses could be attributed to dropping Adil Rashid. Would Pakistan really have broken tenth-wicket records if Rashid had been getting the ball above the eyelines of Shadab Khan and Haris Rauf?

Henry Crocombe debuted in that game and despite expensive figures he should continue for experience. Gus Atkinson may be rested with Sonny Baker getting a game. It may also be worth trying James Coles in place of Sam Curran.

Possible XI: Banton, Duckett, Root, Brook, Cox, Jacks, Coles, J Overton, Dawson, Baker, Crocombe

England v Sri Lanka ODI pitch report 

Scores of 241 and 110 suggest the Gaddafi Stadium is a struggle for batters. The new ball bowlers have been to the fore with England reduced to 52 for four in the first match. They were able to recover somewhat. Pakistan had no such luck with Madushanka rampant.

Both collapses are outliers in terms of the historic scorecards and it is fair to say that punters could be in a quandary as to what to expect. One is quite right about getting sucked in by a recency bias.  They may also be the possibility of a used surface with the track for the final.

The Betfair Sportsbook offers over/under first-innings runs at 286.5. It would be fair to reckon if England were to bat first that quote on Betfair exchange could be at 300 or more.

England v Sri Lanka ODI match prediction 

Want to back England at 4/111.36 after a three-game disaster class? Of course you don't. Sri Lanka, patently, are underrated at 9/43.25. They are playing solid cricket and, crucially, their confidence is sky high.

There is nothing wrong with betting Sri Lanka to get the win, although a trade may be preferable. For the game against Pakistan we stated in these pages that Sri Lanka, from a similar position, would flip the odds and we see no reason why they can't do that again.

The outcome, though, probably comes down to attitude. Can Sri Lanka really be at full pelt in a dead rubber? Will they have one eye on Pakistan instead?

England, of course, could match their rivals in terms of being distracted. It is perfectly reasonable to expect them to be thinking of the plane home, particularly with only three or four genuinely playing for their place. It probably evens itself out so Sri Lanka are difficult to justify at the odds.

England v Sri Lanka ODI player tips 

There are two classy performers who are way overdue a win on the top bat markets. Joe Root and Kusal Mendis. Root has had a disappointing run stretching back to the summer but such a reliable performer surely cannot be far away from a win. Kusal has struggled this series but has an excellent record against England. He topped against them in the summer with a brilliant ton. Sportsbook offer a special double at 14/115.00 that both win their respective top-bat markets. Have a small interest.

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