England v South Africa Third T20 Tips: Gamble on Saffers in the wet

• Series level at 1-1

• But rain could ruin decider

• Trent Bridge surface has been flat in T20i

• Openers dominating top bats

England v South Africa
Sunday 14 September, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v South Africa Third T20 team news

England produced a record-breaking display in Manchester as their batters produced an onslaught that was always on the cards. Their 302 was the third-highest in any format of T20 but given it came against a fellow superpower it will be marked down as the crossing of the line in a new era of hitting.

Given the 142-run win margin England will presumably stick with the same XI. That is harsh on Rehan Ahmed who just cannot get a game. Liam Dawson probably takes his slot at the moment and although he was expensive, he took two wickets.

Probable England XI: Salt, Buttler, Bethell, Brook, Banton, Jacks, S Curran, Dawson, Archer,  Rashid, L Wood

South Africa are beginning to look jaded from their white-ball exploits which began in Australia at the start of August. Sure, England's power with the bat is something to behold but they were still sloppy in the field. Five no balls were not acceptable.

With no Keshav Maharaj they have an attack which is prone to the catastrophic with pacers who can go round the park in the wrong conditions. They may add Senuran Muthusamy to the XI and pair him with Bjorn Fortuin to try to wrestle control.

One or possibly two of the fast men (Kagiso Rabada, Lizaad Williams and Kwena Maphaka) may miss out with Corbin Bosch brought back as well. 

Possible South Africa XI: Markram, Rickleton, Pretorius, Brevis, Stubbs, Ferreira, Jansen, C Bosch, Fortuin, Muthusamy,  Rabada

England v South Africa Third T20 pitch report

The last ten domestic T20 matches at Trent Bridge have produced an average first-innings score of 165. And 60% of games have been won by the chaser. That suggests a flat wicket. In The Hundred, and some Blast games, however, the surface has been slow and taken spin. Those surfaces would Have been made to order. We doubt England would have asked for the same but we do have to be aware of the possibility that this isn't flat.

Still, there is almost one or more tracks which are reserved for runs. Pakistan made 232 against England at the venue in 2021 and England got pretty close in the chase. The hosts won by 18 against India with 215 on the board in 2022 and New Zealand chased 175 with 16 balls to spare the year after.

Sportsbook's 11/43.75 that both teams reach 190 and [11/2] that both hit 200 could be of interest. Whether we get a game, though, remains to be seen. There is a 90% chance of rain according to the Met Office from 15.00 through to 18.00. The forecast for Manchester was poor and suggested an overs-reduction. It would be a surprise if predictions were incorrect for the second game running. 

England v South Africa Third T20 match prediction

England's price has collapsed to 1.584/7 from the 1.705/7 region before game two. South Africa are 2.6613/8 for back-to-back white-ball series wins on tour. They may reckon that a thrash and splash is their best hope.

Given that's how they got their win in the series it is hard not to consider this a closer contest than the odds suggest. Conditions are a great leveller in T20 and although the formguide has consistently pointed to England being the better team they are probably too short now.

Would South Africa, for example, be as big to go at 12 an over in a ten-over chase? Probably not. As stated consistently, they can at least trade favourites batting first if there is a reduction in overs. The clue is to how they started their impossible chase with Aiden Markram and Ryan Rickleton hitting well. An against-the-tide South Africa straight-up wager might not be the worst idea if trading is not for you. 

England v South Africa Third T20 player bets

In each of the four innings so far the top scorer has come from the opening berth. In Cardiff, Jos Buttler and Aiden Markram were 'winners', although bets were void because not enough overs were bowled. Phil Salt, of course, and Markram again delivered in Manchester.

Salt's bitter take down of Buttler for followers of this column (how does 83 in a T20 get beat?) will stick in the craw but it makes sense to revisit those at the top of the order, not least because of the threat of rain. We need 10 overs for in an innings for a top-bat bet to stand. Buttler is 12/53.40, Salt 4/15.00, Markram 10/34.33 and Rickleton 7/24.50. 

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