England v New Zealand First ODI Tips: Kiwis value in a chase

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Phillips has won three from 11 and is 6/1 for top bat

Ed Hawkins previews game one from Cardiff on Friday and picks the outsiders bowling first and two solid top-bat wagers at [10/3] and [6/1].


England v New Zealand
Friday 8 September, 12:30
TV: Live on TNTSports

England v New Zealand first ODI team news

England gear up for their defence of their World title by harking back to old hands. Ben Stokes and Joe Root, who haven't played half of the available matches in the last three years are expected to slot straight back into the groove.

Jason Roy and Jonny Bairstow, so long as he overcomes a shoulder issue, are expected to open while Dawid Malan, who boasts the best average of anyone in that study period, may miss out. And you thought Harry Brook was unlucky. That's if England choose six bowlers as we presume Stokes won't be bowling.

With the ball one from Gus Atkinson and Mark Wood may get speedster duty. Reece Topley's left-arm pace deserves a shout. Liam Livingstone and Chris Woakes may battle for that No 7 slot.

Possible XI: Bairstow, Roy, Stokes, Root, Buttler, Moeen, Livingstone, S Curran, Rashid, Wood, Topley

New Zealand are without Kane Williamson but they have included their best batter in their World Cup squad. Not that they will miss him if their barnstorming end to the T20 series is anything to go by.

Finn Allen found form and he is paired up front with Devon Conway. As ever, much rests on the shoulders of Glenn Phillips who was also in cracking nick.
Tom Latham is the middle-order glue.

Trent Boult is back and he should form a potent new-ball partnership with Matt Henry. Kyle Jamieson should add batting depth.

Possible XI: Conway, Allen, Young, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Santner, Jamieson, Southee, Boult, Henry

England v New Zealand first ODI pitch report

Batting at Sophia Gardens has been tricky domestically and internationally. In the last seven domestic one-day games only twice has more than 257 been busted. Six were won by the chaser.

Internationally, four out of five scores in the World Cup came in at under 202. England's 386 was an outlier. And overall there's a hefty toss bias for the chaser with 17 wins from 27 results.

No rain is forecast but it could be muggy and boost swing bowlers. With New Zealand's run rate at 5.4 batting first in the last two years compared to England's 6.5, shorting Kiwi runs at 280 is on the wishlist at even money or slightly odds-against.

England v New Zealand first ODI match odds

England are 1.574/7 with New Zealand 2.809/5 for a game which is a dress-rehearsal for the opening match in the World Cup on October 4. It's fair to reckon that conditions will be completely different.

Given the toss bias discussed above, it wouldn't be advisable to bet pre-toss. If it goes New Zealand's way and they bowl first, we don't expect the match odds market to budge much.

So at the odds they are a perfectly reasonable value call. The threat of an England onslaught is never far away but we have to put some faith in the pitch data.

Back New Zealand bowling 1st @ 2.809/5

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England v New Zealand first ODI player bets

It will come as no surprise that we're betting Phillips at 6/17.00 for top Kiwi bat. He has three wins from the last 11 - the best record available. Add him to your betslip here and be quick about it.

Back Glenn Phillips top NZ bat @ 6/17.00

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For England, Stokes is likely to bat at No 3 so 4/15.00 could be considered value. Add Stokes to your slip here while Dawid Malan, careful on a tricky surface, may be preffered to Jason Roy at 10/34.33. Malan has three wins in the last nine which is an identical record to the opener. Bet on Malan here.

Boult takes wickets for fun and on every filter he's striking quicker than any of his team-mates. He is the 3/14.00 jolly and rightfully so. You can bet Boult here.

Back Dawid Malan top England bat @ 10/34.33

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Recommended bets

(0.5pts) Back Glenn Phillips top NZ bat 6/17.00

(0.5pts) Back Dawid Malan top England bat 10/34.33

(1.5pts) Back New Zealand bowling first 2.809/5

Ed Hawkins

Ed is an award-winning cricket writer and is Betfair's resident tipster on every single cricket tournament we cover.

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