England v India Fourth Test Tips: Draw price expected to crash

• Have India missed their chance?

• Day one washout on the cards

• Both teams to make changes

• In-play strategy revealed

• Betfair Predicts is your essential guide to England v India this summer

England v India Fourth Test Superboost

On Wednesday England take on India in the fourth Test of the five match series at Old Trafford and Betfair have a Superboost for the action.

Joe Root has been in fine form throughout the last three matches hitting 22 Boundaries in the series so far.

For England's talisman with the bat to to hit 4+ boundaries in the 1st Innings we have boosted him from 4/61.67 to 11/102.11!

England v India
Wednesday 23 July, 11.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v India fourth Test team news

England were guaranteed to make one change with Liam Dawson coming in for the injured Shaoib Bashir. It immediately makes them stronger in all three departments. Dawson is a competitive player with 371 first-class wickets and 18 first-class centuries.

With an enforced change England once again resisted the temptation to be ruthless. Chris Woakes looked vulnerable to Gus Atkinson while Ollie Pope was under pressure from Jacob Bethell. But there's no movement. One gets the sense that in the case of Pope if not now, when? His increasingly anxious starts are an issue and he will have been furious that once he got in at Lord's in the first-innings he wasted an opportunity.

Jofra Archer goes back-to-back as the hosts looks to wrap the series with a game to spare. The 39 overs he bowled in game three would have taken their toll and England need to be careful. This may be his last game of the series. 

England XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Dawson, Woakes, Carse, Archer

India are expected to confirm that Jasprit Bumrah plays at Old Trafford. The break between matches should have done him good. Pace partner Mohammed Siraj has said he will be playing.

They have lost Nitish Kumar Reddy to injury, however, so changes are guaranteed. Reddy has a knee injury and his ability to break a partnership wtih the ball may be missed. There is no like-for-like replacement.

There are also concerns abotu Akash Deep (groin) and Rishabh Pant (finger). With no Arshdeep Singh, Anshul Kamboj has been added to the squad. Prasidh Krishna would most likely replace Akash. If Pant is not fit then Dhruv Jurel will keep wicket. That may also determine whether India make other changes. Karun Nair is living on borrowed time with flaky performances so Sai Sudharsan stands by. Sai could play as replacement for Reddy anyway while Pant could also play as a batter only. 

Possible India XI: Rahul, Jaiswal, Nair, Gill, Sai/Jurel, Pant, Jadeja, Sundar, Bumrah, Siraj, Prasidh/Akash

Get live fourth Test prediction on Betfair Predicts

England v India fourth Test pitch report

There have been five tests played at Old Trafford in the last five years with only one resulting in a draw. England will not need reminding that it came against Australia, costing them a probable series victory. Three matches have been won by the team batting second. That would have been four were it not for the Manchester downpour in 2023.

Last year England beat Sri lanka by five wickets on a wicket which offered plenty for spinners. Sri Lanka's Prabath Jaysuriya opened the bowling for them and he also briefly made life uncomfortable for England in a chase of 205. 

During the study period the wicket seems to be best for batting in the second and third with average runs per wicket at 36 and 31 either side of averages at 27 in the first and fourth. There may be an expectation that the pitch deteriorates. There's nowt wrong with that.

It is a surface which has offered plenty for all types of bowlers while batters, as Zak Crawley will attest, can hit through the line. In the last five the average batting first is 280. We would expect a par line for England of more than 330 and India around 310 on the Exchange.

As for the all-important weather forecast,  there is mixed news. The Met office predicts 70% chance of rain from 10-19.00 currently on day one. But there is no more rain forecast for the rest of the Test. 

England v India fourth Test match prediction

If the Met Office is correct about the probability of rain on day one then it should be expected that the draw price collapses from 4.2016/5 close to favourite status. Factoring in the slow over-rates and loss of overs that have caused consternation this series, the threat of running out of time to produce a result has to be real.

A simple back-to-lay is on the cards, then. We will look for 1.9110/11 to lay. If we add 50% to our original back stake then all results will produce a profit. A washout on day one and then a strong batting effort from either team could mean we get the price by day three. 

Once they do get onto the pitch it is hard not to think India's chance in the series has gone. They have performed strongly in each of the three Tests and may be confused as to why they are behind 2-1. In the case of Lord's there should be no confusion. They didn't knuckle down in a chse that was eminently achievable with sensible, patient batting. 

Yas Jaiswal, Karun Nair and Shubman Gill were all guilty of undervaluing their wickets. It is odd for a team coached by the authoritarian Gautam Gambhir. Washington Sundar was flaky again in first- and second-innings. His inability to get the ball off the square when batting with the tail in the first dig was not discussed enough.

However, at 3.505/2 they are far in advance of the 2.506/4 pre-toss at HQ. That's a significant shift with some assistance from the weather. With Bumrah available and that wake-up call that more gumption is required they are not the worst bet in the world. England will more often that not give their opposition a chance and it would be no surprise at all to see them trading at favourite status at some stage. 

England v India fourth Test in-play strategy

The in-play strategy should focus on runs being scored once the ball gets old and soft. It has been a major factor in the series that batting has got easier around the 35-over mark. This is due to the Dukes ball losing shape. There is currently an investigatiion undrerway as to why this is happening but it is not going to be resolved in time to impact this game.

There may be a clatter of wickets with the new ball but the key will be not to reckon that is the status quo for the game. It really should get easier. Going long of the Mr Reliables like Joe Root or Gill could pay off in-play with Sportsbook's runs lines. Alternatively going over runs for fall of next wicket can be a cheap, easy win with the mark at the early 30s. 

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