India v Afghanistan World Cup Tips: Ibrahim not to be missed at 3/1

• Delhi pitch flat

• India runs lune set to be high

• Ibrahim 3/14.00 for 50

India v Afghanistan
Wednesday 11 October, 09:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

India v Afghanistan World Cup team news

India remain without Shubman Gill due to dengue. He is also a major doubt for the clash against Pakistan. Vouchers for top tournament bat and top India bat may as well be binned. We expect the same XI that beat Australia comfortably in Chennai.

Probable XI: Rohit, Ishan, Kohli, Shreyas, Rahul, Hardik, Jadeja, Ashwin, Kuldeep, Bumrah, Siraj

Afghanistan collapsed in a heap against Bangladesh's spin and their batting remains a major problem. They are reliant on Ibrahim Zadran for runs. There's little wrong with their bowling, though. If they wanted to bolster their spin attack, Noor Ahmad could be added offering a possible 40 overs of tweak.

Possible XI: Gurbaz, Ibrahaim, Rahmat, Hashmatullah, Najibullah, Nabi, Omarzai, Rashid K, Mujeeb, Naveen, Farooqi

India v Afghanistan World Cup pitch report

The Delhi surface has to be classed as a road after South Africa's 428 against Sri Lanka, who themselves looked handy. We do expect an overreaction on the par line, though. India could well be charged with 350.5 or higher and it does have the feel of a short against the No 1-ranked team on economy.

India v Afghanistan World Cup match odds

India are 1.141/7 with Afgahnistan 8.07/1. How do we trade that latter price? Well, surely Afghanistan need to bat first and bat well.

Then early damage would be required with 280 or more on the board. It's starting to look like a childish wishlist.

Sportsbook prices for India margin of victory by 8 wickets/71-80 runs at 6/17.00 and 7 wickets/61-70 runs at 7/18.00 have appeal.

India v Afghanistan World Cup player bets

Sportsbook rate Ibrahim at 7/24.50 for top Afghan bat. That's 22% implied probability. His win rate in the last two years is 31.5%. An easier wager may be the 3/14.00 that he busts 50 or more. For India, only KL Rahul is value on win rate for top bat at 13/27.50 but you are betting him to go back-to-back.