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Sunday 19 July, 15:00
TV: Sky Sports
West Indies v New Zealand fourth ODI team news
West Indies have reinforcements at the right time. Justin Greaves and Brandon King come into the squad for the injured John Campbell and Roston Chase.
Greaves is fit again after a back injury and he is likely to slot back in to the opening berth. Whether that's with Ackeem Auguste or King remains to be seen. Returns of 26 and 18 for Ackeem weren't quite what the hosts were looking for.
Shimron Hetmyer was in the middle order for game three. He should retain his spot. There is no Kharry Pierre, who has been released from the squad. That might suggest West Indies don't expect heavy spin.
But they still retain three tweak options. This venue has been more about pace, though, and it would be a surprise if we didn't at least see one of Matthew Forde and Jayden Seales. Seales has been their most potent wicket-taker over the last two years and is unused so far. Pierre and Vitel Lawes open up spots
Possible XI: Young, Nicholls, Chapman, Mitchell, Latham, Bracewell, Santner, Smith, Duffy, Fisher, Lennox
New Zealand are 2-1 up and they are grateful to spinner Jayden Lennox. Lennox has won back-to-back man of the match awards with nine wickets.
His strong showing means that the Kiwis may have to tweak their XI if they Bridgetown will require an extra pacer. That may make Michael Bracewell or Dean Foxcroft vulnerable to the axe.
Matt Fisher or leftie Ben Lister are likely to come into contention. They had only 20 overs of pace available in providence, which was quite right. But they won't leave them with as few options this time. A bolder move would be to use only one fast bowler, noting that as soon as they pace came off
Possible XI: Young, Nicholls, Chapman, Mitchell, Latham, Foxcroft/Bracewell, Santner, Smith, Duffy, Lennox, Fisher
West Indies v New Zealand fourth ODI pitch report
There is very healthy study sample to work with in Bridgetown. In the last five years there have been 10 ODI played there. The runs per over is 4.99. Eight of the matches have been under lights. This is not one of them so we have to be wary of the trend for the side fielding first to win the game.
We can be confident in first-innings scores, though. This is another one for the bowlers with half of the innings not even breaching 200. Seven of the ten innings would have been under winners on the higher total runs line from Sportsbook. New Zealand's quote is 247.5. But the total first-innings line is higher at 254.5 with the same win ratio.
Pacers who have variation have done well at the venue. Forde and Romario Shepherd, for example. England, India and Australia have all succumbed to the vagaries of the surface in the study period.
Back under 254.5 1st inns runs
West Indies v New Zealand fourth ODI match prediction
New Zealand have roared back impressively following defeat in game one in Providence. They adapted quickly to conditions, using all their nous and experience to take the last two on the Guyana leg.
If there is one team you don't want to be playing on attritional, heavy surfaces, it is probably the Kiwis. They can cover most bases. On a slightly different surface in Bridgetown they should still be too strong for West Indies. It is possible we see more canny in-field tactics such as Daryl Mitchell or Mark Chapman bowling nagging medium pace with the keeper up.
The match odds market, of course, reflects this. Any sort of shift in-play for New Zealand to that 1.804/5 mark is an option on the Exchange. While the market recognises Kiwi dominance it may overreact to a low score from the tourists in the context of ODI generally rather than this surface. We would expect New Zealand to be bang in the game defending 200-250.
West Indies v New Zealand fourth ODI player bets
We haven't seen Jayden Seales yet in this series. It is possible that the Windies have been saving him for a more pace-friendly surface. Bridgetown would fit the bill. In the last two years Seales has been the home team's most reliable performer on the top bowler market, winning 36% of the time. The 10/34.33 therefore is a bet.
That win rate includes the Sportsbook rule of only paying out on a winner if he has conceded the fewest amount of runs if tied with another bowler.