West Indies v India
Saturday 6 August, 15:30
TV: live on BT Sport
Windies change tactics
Having levelled the series West Indies are disappointed to be behind again. They did okay in game three in Basseterre, posting 164. But they then ran into some classy India batting.
The make-up of their XI should give a clue as to what they expect the Lauderhill surface to be like. They may look for more control by picking an extra spinner in Hayden Walsh.
But the issue they have generally is a lack of control with the ball. All-rounders like Keemo Paul and Odean Smith have proved expensive. Indeed, Smith was dropped for the last match.
Devon Thomas, the wicketkeeper, has forced his way into the side and it could be a permanent change of tack. Instead of batting deep with bowlers who can smash it, they are trying to load up in the middle order. Romario Shepherd, another in the Paul-Smith mould, has also been out of the side.
Possible XI: King, Mayers, Pooran, Powell, Hetmyer, Thomas, Holder, Akeal, Joseph, Drakes, McCoy
Rohit worry
Rohit Sharma is a major doubt for this contest after retiring hurt with a back injury during the chase in Basseterre. India have a wealth of options as to who could replace him.
Ishan Kishan, a specialist opener, would make most sense. But Rishabh Pant could also bat there meaning room for Sanju Samson.
Such is India's depth that Rohit is unlikely to be missed. Suryakumar Yadav is beginning to establish himself as a key man. It was his sublime innings that made a tricky chase in game three a walk in the park.
There could be changes with the ball, though. Avesh Khan was pricey at more than 15 an over and Harshal Patel could be rightly fuming if he misses out again. Alternatively India could pick one from Axar Patel and Ravi Jadeja.
Possible XI: Ishan, Yadav, Shreyas, Pant, Hardik, Hooda, Karthik, Ashwin, Kumar, Harshal, Arshdeep
Pitch report
Predicting what the Lauderhill surface is like is tricky. These two played at the venue in 2019. India won both, defending 167 and chasing 95. There have been only two games since between USA and Ireland. Ireland defended 150 and USA likewise with 188.
The 13 CPL matches played there may be of most use. By collating run rates the average suggests a score of 158 in the first-innings can be expected. We are slightly wary though of local authorities keenness for a spectacular runfest to encourage the growth of the game.
That's what happened in a 2016 contest. West Indies won by one run after posting a massive 245. Both teams to score 170 is 23/10 with Sportsbook. For both teams to score 190 and 200 7/2 and 13/2 odds are available.
How to play
West Indies are 2.89/5 with India 1.528/15. As we have said consistently throughout the series we don't believe the gulf is as big as the odds suggest. Bet the match odds here
But before we start piling into the Windies, a caveat. We want them batting first here because of the potential for runs. We would feel like mugs if a flat one had been prepared, boundaries were brought in and India were even shorter at the break.
We're pinning our hopes on a trade then with West Indies batting well the cornerstone. Having switched to middle-order power they may be more inclined to go harder up front instead of setting up platforms for that lower-order.
Pitch report
Rohit and Rovman Powell hit half centuries in one of the previous meetings at the ground. Rohit has been boosted to 11/4 for top India bat by Sportsbook. Powell is 5/1.
Shimron Hetmyer, though, is a fancy on ground form. He has a ton at the venue. The 6/1 that he tops for the 'hosts' is eyecatching as a result.
On batting order discussion from above, Ishan is 10/3 and Pant 5/1. Man of the match could be dominated by a batter so those two at 11/2 and 11/1 are worthy of a mention. Rohit is 4/1 and Yadav 9/2.