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West Indies outsiders but not by enough
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Toss bias for defender at Sabina Park
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All-rounder Russell's swansong
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Shepherd standout for top bowler
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Powell an option on win rate for runs
West Indies v Australia
Monday 21 July, 01.00
TV: Live on TNT
West Indies v Australia first T20 team news
West Indies have Andre Russell available for the two matches in Jamaica and then he will retire. They are losing their T20 powerhouses at a rate following Nic Pooran's decision to leave the international game. Matthew Forde will take Russell's place but it seems likely Russell is given both games as a swansong.
One of the hosts' major decisions will be where to bat Shai Hope. He either opens or goes at No 3. Evin Lewis takes one opening spot after 91 off 44 balls against Ireland. Brandon King could also be his opening partner.
Jewel Andrew, a wicketkeeper batter with a strike rate at 114, and left-armer Jedia Blades could debut at some stage. Jason Holder and Alzarri Jospeh may be the only two out-and-out quicks.
Possible WI XI: King, Lewis, Hope, Rutherford, Powell, Hetmyer, Russell, Shepherd, Holder, Motie, Joseph
Australia have been denied the chance to have a look at Spencer Johnson. He has withdrawn from the squad with back problems. Sean Abbott should be attack leader with Ben Dwarshuis and Nathan Ellis in support.
The batting could be fluid lower down with Tim David pencilled in for a bigger role. Glenn Maxwell could play as a finisher. It would be a surprise if the top three didn't comprise Short-Marsh-Inglis. Micth Owen or Jake Fraser-McGurk may bat at No 4. They could rotate Cooper Connolly and Aaron Hardie in the all-rounder slot
Possible Australia XI: Short, Marsh, Inglis, Owen, David, Connolly/Hardie, Maxwell, Abbott, Dwarshuis, Zampa, Ellis
West Indies v Australia First T20 pitch report
In the last ten T20i at Sabina Park the average total runs have been 340 with a first-innings average of 181. If you win the toss you bat with a 67% bias for the defender. In the last ten franchise T20s the toss bias holds at 60%. The averages come down as one would expect due to used surfaces at 164 in the first dig.
That latter number is bang on the Windies' total runs for the match overs/unders with Sportsbook at 164.5. If we were to get a repeat of the line for the Aussies at 178.5 on the Exchange par line it may be a buy. West Indies' run rate in the their four matches played this year (three against England one against Ireland) is 10.5.
The average number of sixes on the T20i filter per game is 18.2 so there's no error on Sportsbook's 18.5 line. The respective average per game for each team is West indies 11 and Australia eight. There is the possibility of thunderstorms delaying the start.
West Indies v Australia First T20 match prediction
West Indies are 2.588/5 with Australia 1.635/8. It is hard to consider a wager on the outsiders here. Anyone who watched West Indies get thumped by England, mainly due to their own incompetence in the field, will reckon that price is just nowhere near big enough.
And there are few more efficient outfits than Australia, who are looking to build ahead of the T20 World Cup in India in February. In any format they're generally not a team one could say takes things lightly.
The toss bias at Sabina Park does test the natural inclination to deploy a bat-second strategy with Australia. The average for the Windies one suspects wouldn't be enough with their leaky bowling.
West Indies v Australia First T20 player bets
With no Travis Head (win rate 38% in two years) the top Aussie bat market is wide open. Maxwell is often value with four wins in 18 but we're unsure where he bats so Sportsbook's 5/16.00 doesn't appeal. For West indies Rovman Powell is always a good follow (win rate 35%) but we may wait for a more sluggish surface. Romario Shepherd is Mr Reliable with the ball for West indies returning 50% of the time in the last 16. He is underrated at 7/24.50.
Back Romario Shepherd top WI bowler