Afghanistan v Ireland T20 World Cup Tips: Irish eyes could be smiling again

• Ireland's three wins in Belfast key
• Hazratullah likes attack
• Irish should trade favoruites

Afghanistan v Ireland
Friday 27 October, 05:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Afghanistan got themselves an unexpected point after a washout against New Zealand. It may raise hopes of an unlikely semi-final surge but in terms of implied probability for a last-four beth the percentages have gone down.

We're still not convinced they're picking their best XI. Naveen-ul-Haq is a sought-after franchise player but he has been dropped for Fareed.

Probable XI: Zazai, Gurbaz, Zadran, Ghani, Najibullah, Nabi, Omarzai, Rashid, Mujeeb, Fareed, Farooqi

Ireland are bang in the race for the semi-finals after shocking England. However, they may be lucky to come up against a team so chronically daft not to check the rain radar again.

No matter. The Irish have a clutch of players who are looking more than capable at this level. They have already hammered West Indies.

Probable XI: Stirling, Balbirnie, Tucker, Tector, Campher, Dockrell, Delany, Adair, Hand, McCarthy, Little

Pitch report

There has been only one score of 160 or more in the Super 12 fixtures so far. The scores at the MCG have been Pakistan's 159 and Ireland's 157. Pakistan;'s should have been a winner as well. For those reasons we'd be surprised if either team threatened 160 and it could pay to go low at 130 or 140 on first dig.

How to play

These two know each other well. For the Irish, familiarity breeds contempt. In the last four years they've lost seven from 11. However, there is hope.

Their three wins all came in Belfast in August when they took a surprise series win. Could those Belfast conditions be replicated at an overcast and rainy Melbourne?

Ireland are outsiders at 2.486/4 with Afghnaistan 1.684/6. Clearly the latter is little fun so at the least Ireland can flip the odds. Their pace bowlers should be able to mix it up to give Afghanistan a tricky time.

Tops value

Hazratullah Zazai is a short against the best attacks but he has a great record against Ireland. He's smashed 167 against them and has the second highest number of runs in the head-to-head. He is 7/2 for top Afghan bat. Stirling heads that list and is 5/2 for top Ireland.

With the ball, we come back to Naveen. He has taken a wicket every 10.7 balls against Ireland. Sportsbook make him 10/3. If he plays he should bowl at the death.