South Africa v West Indies First T20 Tips: Trends say big runs for hosts

• West Indies 3.3512/5 outsiders

• Runs in the offing for hosts

• Ngidi stands out at 7/2

South Africa v West Indies
Saturday 25 March, 12.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

South Africa, unlike in the ODI series, are at full-strength. They are likely to rotate their three-man pace battery of Kagiso Rabada, Anrich Nortje and Lungi Ngidi.

Heinrich's Klaasen's 61-ball 119 in the final ODI is a warning as to what the West Indies can expect. They have tremendous middle-order power.

With no Temba Bavuma South Africa alsoa have the opening partnershop they were crying out for in the World Cup, although Quinton de Kock's form could do with ticking up.

Possible XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Rossouw, Markram, Miller, Klaasen, Jansen, Parnell, Rabada, Shamsi, Nortje/Ngidi

West Indies performed creditably in the ODI series, coming away with a 1-1 draw after a strong performance in game one.

They should be better suited to T20 but they have suffered poor form. It doesn't help that they are not picking their best players. Shimron Hetmyer for example.

Possible XI: King, Mayers, Brooks, Pooran, Powell, Holder, Shepherd, Akeal, Smith, Joseph, McCoy

Pitch report

We can expect runs in Centurion. In the recent SAT20 four out of the six matches saw 200 or more busted. Understandably there's also a toss bias for the team batting first.

For innings runs, South Africa for 200 or more in the first dig could be potential value from 3.505/2. They have a collective strike rate of 140 in the last 12 months. They've also gone over 200 four times in their last seven. More than 175 or more for the hosts could be available at evens.

There were also two tons in that SAT20 spell in first-innings and Sportsbook go 10/1 that there will be another. The scorers of those centuries, Klaasen and Aiden Markram, should play here.

How to play

South Africa are 1.412/5 with West Indies 3.3512/5. That's a big gulf between two well-established teams, the latter which is a T20 pioneer. Is it justified?

Perhaps only if South Africa bat first. They could be prohibitively short at the break given the trends for runs.

There is the possibility, however, that West indies can go well with the bat themselves, and they could shorten up significantly with runs on the board.

Tops value

Klaaasen and Markram will be go-to options for top bat because of their recent form. Sportsbook go 11/2 and 7/1 respectively. Neither could be considered a bad wager at those odds. For West Indies Kyle Mayers, who should open, has been boosted to 7/2.

Ngidi is always a great option for top SA bowler. He has a strike rate of 10.9 in the last 12 months and has five wins in 12. He should be shorter than 7/2. Rabada, the 11/4 joint-favourite with Anrich Nortje, has one return in 14. Nortje is a major threat to Ngidi with five returns in 12 and a strike rate of 13.5.