South Africa v West Indies Third ODI Tips: Bowlers could dominate

• West Indies cut to 3.309/4

• Batters may find it harder

• Bavuma 3/1 for another top-bat

South Africa v West Indies
Tuesday 21 March, 08:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

South Africa will be closer to full-strength for the final ODI as they try to level the series although there is no room for pacers Kagiso Rabda or Anrich Nortje, who are rested.

Aiden Markram, David Miller and Wayne Parnell are all listed. It would seem odd not to include Markam and Miller given South Africa's middle-order naivety.

Batting Rassie van der Dussen at No 5 was an attempted remedy. Two from Ryan Rickleton, Tony de Zorzi and Tristan Stubbs could miss out as they fit the rights shaped peg in the right hole. Pricey Lungi Ngidi is also a doubt.

Possible XI: De Kock, Bavuma, van der Dussen, de Zorzi, Markram, Miller, Jansen, Parnell, Fortuin, Coetzee, Shamsi

Alzarri Joseph, not listed in the original squiad, turned in a match-turning performance in East London. His late hitting and three wickets had a big impact.

Shai Hope, in a new position in the middle-order, returned a fine century and the aggressive pairing of Brandon King and Kyle Mayers in the opening slot was a bright move.

There was a lot left to be desired, however, about their plans in the field and it was a tough watch as they laboured to defend 335. Yanic Cariah may make way for Shannon Gabriel.

Probable XI: Mayers, King, Brooks, Hope, Pooran, Powell, Holder, Hosein, Smith, Joseph, Gabriel

Pitch report

There have been only two ODI played at Potchefstroom since 2015. Australia failed to defend 254 in 2020.

Domestically, in four domestic 50-over matches this season there were first innings scores (1-2 denote matches won batting first or second): 225-2/233/2/268-1/284-1.

Scores the two previous seasons were: 243-1/251-1/205-2/228-1/228-2/229-2.

That's hardly a trend for big runs. And looking back at ODI scorecards there have been only four scores of more than 300 in 19 matches.

We would be keen to go unders runs lines in the 270-280 region as a result. Shorting at 280 would have been a loser five times in ODI there.

How to play

South Africa are 1.422/5 with West Indies 3.309/4. That's quite the cut on West Indies from 4.30100/30 from game two.

We were on Windies for that success but we find it hard to justify going in again. Their decision-making in the field was, frankly, awful when trying to close out the game and, having sat through it, betting them again only to produce something similar would be difficult to take.

Bowling bouncers at Lungi Ngidi, no slip and keeping men in the outfield when he wasn't looking to score was not a great look when wickets were the name of the game. The weather forecast is okay.

Tops value

We were on Rassie at 7/2 for the second match because of his excellent win rate but we can't abide an 11/4 quote given where he batted.

Shamarh Brooks is also only giving up 0.5% on win rate versus a price of 9/2 so we'll swerve. Hope has been boosted to 4/1

Temba Bavuma has scored two tons in this series (Test and ODI) against West Indies so 3/1 he tops for SA may be generous. If it is bowler friendly 18s about Marco Jansen is eye-catching.

Joseph is 3/1 favourite for top West Indies bowler and it may be that he should be a clear jolly at 11/4 given his death bowling.