-
Pakistan should post over 200
-
Cleaver could come in
-
Rizwan 16/5 top match bat
Pakistan v New Zealand
Monday 24 April, 17:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Team news
Pakistan returned to their strongest XI for game four in Rawalpindi - and they were well on top before a hailstorm called a halt to the contest.
Bowling first on a wicket which had been a road in the PSL, the Kiwis had failed to accelerate. At 164 for five with one ball of the 19th left, it was a below-par score.
Imad Wasim has claimed three wickets and Shaheen Afridi, Haris Rauf and Zaman Khan had been put together again. Fakhar Zaman and Saim Ayub retained their spots at Nos 3 and 4.
Probable XI: Babar, Rizwan, Fakhar, Ayub, Shadab, Imad, Iftikhar, Faheem, Afridi, rauf, Zaman
New Zealand cannot win the series with the scorleine at 2-1 with one to play. But they should be grateful for the rain giving them a chance to still draw.
Surely they make changes to the batting, specifically Will Young, who has been awful, dropping out for Dane Cleaver?
The one bright spot has been the hitting of Mark Chapman. He should be a starter for the full-strength side from now on. Adam Milne has done well, too.
Possible XI: Latham, Bowes, Cleaver, Mitchell, Chapman, Neesham, Randindra, McConchie, Milne, Sodhi, Shipley.
Pitch report
The Rawalpindi pitch very good for batting There were huge scores in the PSL this year. Of the 11 matches played there, seven produced scores of 200 or more. And it remains flat. In those 11, 201, 205, 240 and 242 was chased.
But what we have learnt is that the Kiwis, even on a road, can't be trusted to go big. They were struggling for 180 or more. We were saved by the weather, though, because 20 overs have to be bowled on the par line unless a side is bowled out. The par line if Pakistan bat first is likely to be high 190s, probably 200.5. There is no rain forecast - or hail - currently.
How to play
Pakistan are no better than 1.384/11. Really, they shouldn't have been losing once to this Kiwi B team so the odds are about what you would expect.
There is a trade available, though. But it relies on New Zealand batting out of their skin and posting the 180 required to get Pakistan's price up to the 1.758/11 region. If that happens, then we can play this market.
Even better - and much less likely - is a runfest from the tourists batting first. We'd back Pakistan to get up to 220.
Tops value
On a very good batting wicket we often shy away from backing one batter to outdo the rest of his team-mates. But Dane Cleaver might be a smidge of value at 5/1 as we expect him to bat at No 3. Given that he was 17/2 earlier in the series might make it a bitter pill, though.
For Pakistan, Mohammad Rizwan is win-rate value at 16/5 for top match bat on career data. But that's risky given the wicket status. Instead his runs and Babar's - overs at 28.5 for 4/5 - may prove popular.
A way to keep all batters on side is the 17/2 there's a first-innings ton. There have been three in the last 12.