Pakistan v England Sixth T20 Tips: All-round England to hit back

Pakistan v England
Friday 30 September, 15:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Pakistan have a 3-2 lead and they should be grateful to debutant Aamer Jamel, who produced a superb display of death bowling in game five in Lahore. Jamel defended 15 against the expert hitter Moeen Ali.

Otherwise it was another one-dimensional performance from Pakistan. If Mohammad Rizwan doesn't get runs then they are going to be in deep trouble.

Whether Rizwan plays is a doubtful. He suffered a blow to the back and didn't take to the field for the chase. Shan Masood would most likely move to open with Khushdil Shah returning. Shadab Khan is available again which is a major boost. Naseem Shah is out of the series with illness.

Probable XI: Rizwan, Babar, Haider, Masood, Iftikhar, Nawaz, Shahdad, Jamel, Wasim, Rauf

If England badly want to win this series they bring back captain Jos Buttler. Buttler siad 'if this was a World Cup match he'd be playing'. That suggests they won't take a risk.

But there are issues with their top order. They have two wickets in the fiurst powerplay 11 times in 16 games in 2022, up from five in 17 in 2021.

Phil Salt and Alex Hales are unpickable for the World Cup on the form they've shown so far. Opening with Dawid Malan is an option with Salt moving to a finisher role. It seems pointless wasting a game on Will Jacks when he won't be playing in Australia. We expect Mark Wood to be rested.

Possible XI: Hales, Malan, Duckett, Brook, Moeen, Salt, S Curran, Woakes, Willey, Rashid, Topley

Pitch report

The Lahore surface looked a little sluggish. Still, Pakistan's inability to switch to aggression mode maybe more pertinent. England, more used to being gung-ho, should be good for at least 160. Pakistan v England Fourteen of the last 21 in first innings have seen scores of 160 or more. Only eight of those matches resulted in both teams notching 160.

How to play

The Lahore toss bias came good in game five. It's now 15 of the last 21 games won by the team batting first.

There was heavy dew, however, in the latest action. That tempers our confidence somewhat in steaming into England batting first so we'll keep stakes more sensible.

We are significantly downbeat about Pakistan's one dimensional batting and reckon the match odds are about right with England 1.981/1. England have more facets to their game and it would be a major surprise if they weren't able to win one of the remaining two. Bet the market here

Tops value

Mohammad Rizwan is 23/10 for his 15th win in 25 games for top Pakistan bat. Babar Azam is boosted to 12/5. Id we're right about Malan opening the batting for England the 4/1 is of inmterest but do bear in mind he looks out of touch on surfaces which don't suit a backfoot game. Moeen Ali could well be pushed up the order one place so the 17/2 about back-to-back wins isn't too shabby.

New boy Jamel is underrated at 11/2 for top Pakistan bowler based purely on the fact that he should bowl at the death. Bet the markets here