New Zealand v Sri Lanka T20 World Cup Tips: Kiwis could go big again

• SCG pitch has been ful of runs
• Devon Conway consistent with the bat
• Kiwis a bet for runs up front

New Zealand v Sri Lanka
Saturday 29 October, 04:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

New Zealand were frustrated by a washout against Afghanistan but the second favourites for the title are well on course for the semis. They whacked 200 against the Aussies at the SCG and they could go big if they bat first again.

They may be able to call on Daryl Mitchell, who is on his way back to fitness. That could mean Mark Chapman loses his place. We'd rather Kane Williamson missed out because of his slow scoring but that looks unlikley.

Probable XI: Allen, Conway, Williamson, Phillips, Mitchell, Neesham, Bracewell, Santner, Sodhi, Southee , Ferguson, Boult

Sri Lanka have injury problems. They have lost Madushanka, Gunathilaka and now Binura Fernando. It's tough on the Lankans who have had plenty of travelling to do (Hobart, Perth and now Sydney) and that may be taking a toll.

Pacer Kasun Rajitha may get a game with Fernando a major doubt. Wanindu Hasaranga has plenty on his shoulders and the Kiwis may target a weak sixth bowling option.

Probable XI: Nissanka, Kusal, Dhanajaya, Asalanka, Rajapaksa, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Karunaratne, Theekshana Lahiru, Rajitha

Pitch report

The SCG pitch has looked pretty good for batting. There have been scores so far of 200, 205 and 179. That last one was by India against the Netherlands, highlighting what decent plans the Dutch have in the field. New Zealand could be a bet for 180 or more. Sri Lanka's batting is far less reliable and they are struggling to reach the 170s. With both teams pitched at 13/5 for 160 or more we might be able to get even money on the par line about New Zealand busting 165.5.

How to play

New Zealand are 1.4640/85 with Sri Lanka 3.185/40. That looks a poor price about a Sri Lanka team which were schooled by Namibia.

We're looking for them to get a foothold so we can get with the Kiwis from 1.608/13 but, in truth, if New Zealand bat first that might not happen.

The Kiwis are 6/1 to win by five wickets/41-50 runs, 15/2 6/51-60 and 17/2 7/61-70 with Sportsbook.

Tops value

Devon Conway is 12/5 for top Kiwi bat with Sportsbook and he is the second most consistent runs getter in the last 12 months in the world on runs per innings. He could be boosted to 11/4. We note the 14s about Chapman being big for a potential No 5. For Sri Lanka, Bhanuka Rajapksa and Dasun Shanaka have appeal at 6/1 and 10/1.

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