New Zealand v Pakistan T20 Tips: Phillips can turn the screw

New Zealand v Pakistan
Saturday 8 October, 07.10
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

The Kiwis are not at full strength with both Micthell Santner and Daryll Mitchell out. Still, is Santner a player one misses as a punter? We suspect not.

The big players are there, including Trent Boult, Adam Milne, Lockie Fegruson and Glenn Phillips. They have a decision to make on their opening pair: two from Martin Guptill, Finn Allen and Davon Conway. We would prefer the latter two.

Kane Williamson is a potential problem at No 3 but New Zealand are hardly unique in having to accommodate a too-slow batter with a big reputation and low strike rate.

Possible XI: Guptill, Conway, Williamson, Phillips, Chapman, Bracewell, Neesham, Sodhi, Southee, Boult, Milne

Pakistan produced a typical performance to win their match against Bangladesh. Once again they were utterly reliant on Mohammad Rizwan, who carried his bat to post 167. Shan Masood produced a decent knock and Iftikhar managed a cameo but they remain light on batting.

They used only five bowlers in defending. One suspects New Zealand will not allow them to be so structured. Attacking the spin of Shadab Khan or Mohammad Nawaz could be where the game is won or lost.

Probable XI: Rizwan, Babar, Masood, Iftikhar, Haider, Asif Ali, Nawaz, Shadab, Wasim, Rauf, Dahani

Pitch report

The Hagley Oval surface looked pretty good in first use by Pakistan. Their 167 may be worth 180-190 to a more attack-minded team. Or, rather, a team who is more used to attack. Pakistan have noticeably tried to be more aggressive yet don't have the personnel to quite pull it off bar Rizwan and, if in touch, Babar. We would expect the Kiwis to threaten the overs on the par line in the mid 160s.

How to play

New Zealand and Pakistan are 1.981/1 the pair. It is a surprise that the market cannot split the two. Pakistan looked a limited outfit against a second-string England who eventually overpowered them.

We would expect the Kiwis to do something similar. They have terrific bowling options (Ferguson may not even get in the XI for example) and they have superior hitting power through the middle. They are a confident selection. Bet the match odds here.

Tops value

Rizwan has top batted for Pakistan 16 times in the last 25. It's an extraordinary win rate and he has been boosted to 21/10 by Sportsbook. But this may be the time to play big prices lower down. Shadab is 45s and Mohammad Wasim eye-catching at 100/1. He is a much better batter than that. Pakistan could come under severe pressure from the home pace attack.

For the Kiwis, Guptill is upped to 3/1 but, as ever, Phillips is outstanding value at 11/2. That's a strong wager on win rate and he should be shorter.