New Zealand v India Third ODI Tips: Weather could make it a bowling day

• Ball could zip at Hagley Oval

• Yadav may hold on to No 3 spot

• India have trade chance

New Zealand v India
Wednesday 30 November, 01:30
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

New Zealand tinkered with the winning XI from game one to game two. Out went Adam Milne, a pacer, and in came Michael Bracewell, a spinner. It was another five-man attack.

And one has to say that it looked a little toothless on paper at least. We'd probably rather have a bit more firepower for a team at odds-on.

Whether they go with the same XI remains to be seen but given that the second match was washed out it would perhaps be a surprise if they didn't stick with what they've got. Daryl Mitchell is their part-time option if they get in trouble with the ball.

Probable XI: Allen, Conway, Williamson, Mitchell, Phillips, Latham, Bracewell, Santner, Southee, Ferguson, Henry

India showed a glimpse of decent intent in the washout. After they lost their first wicket after just five overs they sent in Suryakumar Yadav.

Yadav preceded to thrash 34 from 25 balls. This chivvied Shubman Gill along, too. His 47 came from just 42. More of the same, please.

India made two changes to the XI from game one. Deepak Chahar replaced Shardul Thakur and Sanju Samson lost his place to Deepak Hooda. The latter gives a sixth bowling option

Probable XI: Dhawan, Gill, Yadav, Iyer, Pant, Hooda, Sundar, Chahar, Arshdeep, Chahal, Umran Malik

Pitch report

There have been five games in the last five years at the Hagley Oval. The average runs per over is 5.4. There have been two scores of more than 270, although one first-innings was reduced by rain to 23 overs.

One suspects it's good for batting - second at least. In three games from 2018 to 2021, England and New Zealand (twice) have rattled off very quick chases.

With more wet weather forecast it could be a good toss to win. We would expect the winning captain to bowl first. It might be shrewd to go low on innings runs with cheap lays available for more than 230 and 240.

How to play

New Zealand are 1.784/5 with India 2.1411/10. Twice in the series we've called decent batting conditions and looked to play India batting first.

In the first match they failed to defend 307. In the second they'd made a rapid start. But it would be wise to abandon this strategy for the Hagley Oval. It could well be tricky batting first this time.

That means we'll take a nibble on India to do some early damage and flip the odds for a trade. A back-to-lay on India at 1.705/7 will go all green by adding 50% of the original stake on the lay.

Tops value

Devon Conway and Kane Williamson are 11/4 joint favourites for top Kiwi with Sportsbook. But Glenn Phillips looks overpriced at a tasty 7/1.

Yadav is 4/1 for top india bat. That's value as we expect him to hold onto the No 3 position. Shreyas Iyer is shorter at 10/2 (same price as Gill) and we'd have him the other way round with yadav.

For man of the match, if the ball does bend and swing Arshdeep Singh could be in the running. He stands out at 20/1. Likewsie Tim Southee and Matt Henry at the same price.