Netherlands v England
Wednesday 19 June, 10:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Go big on top match bat
Sometimes things just don't make a whole lot of sense. And we're not banging on about the usefulness' of this three-match series.
In game two Jason Roy won the man of the match award. Fair enough, you might have reckoned. He opened the batting and scored a brisk and entertaining 73 from 60 balls. Yet he didn't score the most runs for England (let alone the match) nor was he the most brutal.
Both of those achievements went to opening partner Phil Salt. Salt was significantly quicker than Roy, striking at a massive 142. He also scored 77.
There are unlikely to be many complaining. Roy would have been a more popular wager on the match gong markets. Still, he has failed to win a top-bat for 12 consecutive games so we will be swerving the boosted 3/1 that Sportsbook offer.
Roy is 5/1 for the man of the match and Salt 6/1. You will forgive us if we don't have much faith in the right man getting the award.
Opening batters have a huge advantage in the market. They can bat for longest and, thanks to the powerplay, can look disproportionately more destructive. Instead we're keen on conflating England's top runscorer with the top match bat market.
This tactic did not pay off in the second game when Scott Edwards, the Dutch middle-order player, pipped Salt by one.
But we shouldn't lose faith with the rationale. It is sound and is one of the best ways of finding value in an uncompetitive heat. Roy is 16/5 and Salt 4/1, for example, significantly better odds than betting them for straight England honours. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
It could be time to return to Jos Buttler here. Buttler didn't bat in the second match. But surely they unleash him in this one, perhaps as high as No 3? Dawid Malan has had two good hits so could be shunted down the order. Buttler is 9/2.
Other prices that catch the eye are the 10/1 about another destructive hitter in Liam Livingstone. Moeen Ali is also another potential for a promotion. He looks huge at 45/1. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
Top England bat wins/matches last 2 years
Bairstow 4/12
Morgan 3/12
Billings 2/9
S Curran 1/7
Root 1/5
Malan 1/7
Salt 2/6
Buttler 1/8
Roy 0/12
Moeen 0/11
O'Dowd has a shout
Scott Edwards has won both time for top Netherlands bat. Instead of trusting him to make it three-in-a-row (a very hard ask), we will place faith in opener Max O'Dowd.
O'Dowd has five wins in 16, a win rate which suggests he should be much shorter than a price-boosted 4/1. It's a whopping edge in our favour.
O'Dowd recorded a fifty in game one and has the ability to go hard and fast in the powerplay. Tom Cooper, at No 3, may be his greatest threat this time. Cooper was a key man in the Big Bash for a number of seasons so this is not a huge step up in class. He is also 4/1.
Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
Top Netherlands bat wins/matches last 3 years
O'Dowd 5/16
Edwards 6/19