India v South Africa Third T20 Tips: Runs should flow again in Indore

India v South Africa
Tuesday 4 September, 14:30

Team news

India secured the series in Guwahati but victory by 16 runs was bittersweet. Bitter because their bowlers were way too pricey with 237 on the board, sweet because their batting was first-class.

Arshdeep Singh's performance will raise alarm bells with Jasprit Bumrah struggling to be fit for the World Cup. He was expensive again, conceding 15 an over.

KL Rahul, Virat Kohli and Suryakumar Yadav had earlier produced sensational knocks. Perhaps Kohli has finally worked out that it's not all about him. Yuz Chahal may come back in for Ravi Ashwin.

Possible XI: KL Rahul, Rohit, Kohli, Yadav, Pant, Karthik, Axar, Harshal, Deepak, Arshdeep, Chahal

Thanks to those three India were never in true danger of defeat but they should ignore the warning at their peril.

South Africa are getting closer - surely - to understanding that Temba Bavuma is a dead duck. In the context of such a massive chase it is unforgiveable to play out a maiden, leaving two, and record a duck of seven balls.

Perhaps Bavuma may do the decent thing and say 'enough is enough'. Reeza Hendricks should be afforded the chance to out down a score. It's entirely possible that Rilee Rossouw gets the chop, though, with Bavuma moving to No 3.

Kagiso Rabda may be rested with Dwaine Pretorius, who is in the World Cup squad, getting game time.

Possible XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Bavuma, Markram, Miller, Stubbs, Pretorius, Parnell, Maharaj, Nortje, Shamsi

Pitch report

The run glut in game two may just be a warm-up for the Holkar Stadium, Indore. This is a venue with a reputation for runs. In the last ten there have been six first-innings scores of 160 or more and three of those have been 200 or more. Seven of the ten, unsurprisingly, have been won by the side batting first. Sportsbook go 6/4 that both teams score 170 or more. That suggests we may be able to over 172.5 runs on the par line in the first dig at even money. Both teams to score 200 is 15/2.

How to play

We'll swerve the toss bias in favour of India in-play going after up to 200. They remain chasers supreme.

With runs expected, betting South Africa in the chase is a question of timing. They're likely to be bigger than 3.002/1 at the break. But it's worth a nibble considering India's profligate bowling.

Tops value

Rohit Sharma and Quinton de Kock have been boosted to 11/4 and 3/1 respectively for top team bat with Sportsbook. Sky Yadav, who won again in Guwahati, is 5/1. Aiden Markram is the same price and is a bet on win rate. David Miller, after a sensational ton, is also 5s.

Sportsbook have offered Bavuma's runs at 16.5 over/under at 10/11. A century in the first-innings is 9/1.