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Big runs expected
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Kohli and Latham to go well
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India may make XI changes
India v New Zealand
Tuesday 24, January 08:00
TV: ESPN streamed
Team news
India gave notice of testing bench strength in this series by resting KL Rahul and the like but they have another opportunity in the final game of the series with a 2-0 lead.
Chief in line for a break should be Hardik Pandya. They have no direct replacement - why would they? He's a once-in-a-generation talent - so Shahbaz Ahmed may get a go in the all-rounder's slot.
Other potential changes include Yuz Chahal for Kuldeep Yadav and Umran Malik for Mohammad Siraj. Less likely is Virat Kohli sitting out so they can have a look at Rajit Patidar.
Possible XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Yadav, Ishan, Sundar, Shahbaz, Thakur, Shami, Malik, Chahal
The Kiwis gave a fine account of themselves on a flat one in game one but on the unknown surface at Raipur they lost a bad toss. It was a difficult wicket and the 108 all out does them a disservice.
For that reason it's unlikely they axe a boatload. Like India, this is also not their strongest side. But they do have the option to find room for hitter Mark Chapman and bowler Jaocob Duffy. Ish Sodhi stands by in case this pitch is a tuner.
Possible XI: Allen, Conway, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Chapman, Bracewell, Santner, Shipley, Ferguson, Duffy
Pitch report
The Holkar in Indore is a pitch we know reasonably well. It has usually been reliable for runs. In IPL and T20i we have seen some monster scores. In seven ODI the average run rate is 5.8. India made 418 against West Indies in 2011. There hasn't been an ODI there since India chased 293 against Australia with ease in 2017. India batting first should manage a minimum of 320 so long as they stick with the same top order. The par line may be set at 315.5.
How to play
This could be more like a repeat of the runfest of game one with New Zealand capable of batting well. So there is a simple trade strategy afoot.
If the Kiwis bat first, expect them to go well and prepare a trade from 3.4549/20. They should be more than capable of lopping off at least 1.3 ticks.
If India bat first, we expect India to shorten rapidly. The gamble then will be to work out whether it's flat enough for New Zealand to launch another comeback.
Tops value
Glen Phillips gave us a nice winner at 15/2 last time out. It means Tom Latham's price is lengthened again, this time to 6/1 He's a better wager than the odds suggest statistically. Kohli has been boosted to 10/3 by Sportsbook for top India bat and that is a price worth taking. Kohli, Rohit Sharma and possibly Latham are all considerations for man of the match with batters to the fore on a road.