England v South Africa
Friday 22 July, 13:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Bairstow still value
Jonny Bairstow was on course to land us a winner at 10/3 in the first match. But he agonisingly fell for 63. It wasn't good enough for us or for England.
The question is whether to follow him in again. He has been a wrong price on win rate throughout the ODI matches this summer (three times against India) and it's zero wins.
Sportsbook have boosted him from 11/4 to 10/3. The edge is on our favour on the data below is 1.9%. It's eroding fast.
At least he has ground form on side. He whacked 112 against Australia at Old Trafford in 2020. Ground form and recent form are often enough to hang your hat on. Overrated rivals like Jason Roy at 7/2 and Joe Root at 16/5 make it easier to get on board. Bet the Sportsbook markets here
Top England bat wins/matches
Bairstow 4/16
Billings 2/9
S Curran 1/8
Root 2/9
Malan 1/8
Salt 2/7
Buttler 3/13
Roy 1/17
Moeen 1/16
Show faith in Malan
There was more frustration as another of our picks, Jannie Malan, got runs but not enough. In Bairstow and the South Africa opener we correctly identified strong performances, only to get done by superior ones.
Malan has been cut to 7/2. That's tough to take considering Rassie van der Dussen streaked home with a brilliant century. Van der Dussen is 9/2 and that provides an edge of 5.3%. That is dwarfed by Malan's edge of almost 19%.
If you're concerned about Malan being outgunned again, Sportsbook offer 4/5 that he goes over 24.5 runs. Do be aware, though, that it's not a win rate bet with nine successes in 17. Bet the Sportsbook markets here
Top SA bat wins/matches
De Kock 3 t/15
Malan 7/17
Van der Dussen 4/17
Miller t/17
Klaasen 1/11
t = tie
Top SA bowler wins/matches
Ngidi 2 3t/13
Maharaj 3 2t/17
Ton up?
For the purposes of the first-innings ton market here have been four 'yeses' in the last eight day-night matches at Old Trafford. There have been three in day matches, with one coming of those coming against Afghanistan.
Sportsbook go 11/10 that we get a century in the first dig. It might be worth a tickle considering strong South Africa form, wayward England bowling and the little niggle in the back of the mind that England's batting can't continue to misfire.
Match gong chance
Yuz Chahal took three wickets for India at Old Trafford four days before this match. In 2020 Adam Zampa took three first-innings wickets. There is a chance that spin could be important on a surface which has a reputation for taking tweak.
So South African spin pair Tabraiz Shamsi and Keshav Maharaj could be bang in the game at 10/3 the pair for top South Africa bowler. Alternatively you be bold and dutch them at 14/1 and 16/1 respectively for man of the match.
Aiden Markram and Liam Livingstone also have appeal as spinning all-rounders at 10/1 and 11/1. Adil Rashid, who struggled against Australia at 2020 at Old Trafford, is 14/1. Bet the Sportsbook markets here