West Indies v New Zealand
Wednesday 17 August, 11.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Petersen a possible
We should only really bet on what we know to be true. We know that the pitch is a minefield so we short runs. We know that the gulf between teams in terms of odds is non-existent so we back the outsider. We know that Billy Batsman is streets ahead of the rest...and so on.
Unfortunately for match one of this series we might not know enough. First off, the pitch is troubling. Images from Lord's suggested a green top, quite extraordinary in the context of hosepipe bans and drought. The innings runs in the first dig don't display a particularly trend, either.
Then there's the two teams. Do England bring white-ball aggression and posturing to red-ball again? Or are they stymied by the classic safety-first South Africans. A contest of such contrasting styles is a learning curve.
South Africa's top-bat market is another unknown. It has been dominated for two years by Faf Du Plessis, Quinton de Kock and Temba Bavuma. None of them play.
Only four South Africans available have topped int he study period. Dean Elgar and Keegan Petersen have won twice. Elgar is boosted to 7/2, Petersen is 4/1. Petersen has durability that makes the price attractive. Bet the Sportsbook odds here.
England retain faith
Jonny Bairstow is another mystery. His form was sensational against New Zealand and India in Tests earlier. He had reached the Shangri-La of batting. But when it came to white-ball, he was back to earth.
A rhythm player, Bairstow has had time out so 7/2 doesn't hold appeal. Likewise Ben Stokes at 6s. Stokes has rested up and needs a mental reset. His batting has been, frankly, a joke. He's been trying to smash everything in an effort to encourage his team and he needs to knuckle down.
Joe Root is 13/5 jolly but there's no edge on win rate. Ollie Pope and Zak Crawley are wrong prices on how often they win but only one has earned trust at this level. And that's Pope. He has a point in our favour in terms of win rate. Bet the Sportsbook odds here.
Crawley a short
Talking of Crawley, his runs are available to short at 21.5 with Sportsbook at 5/6. There can be no doubt whatsoever that South Africa will have done their homework on his technical foibles.
Crawley is unlikely to have been assisted by playing in The Hundred. His chronic form had continued post Tests in the County Championship. Selling at that mark would have won four from six domestically.
Lungi Ngidi is the man who could be the surprise package for England at 7/2 top SA bowler. He has the best strike rate of any South Africa over the last two years and is fit. Kagiso Rabada, the 3/1 jolly, might be struggling for top form. Bet the Sportsbook odds here.
**
Read Ed Hawkins' first Test preview here