Click here for England v India odds
Sunday 19 July, 13:00
TV: Sky Sports
England v India third ODI team news
England are level. But they appear to be overly reliant on the brilliance of Joe Root, who carried their batting for the second-successive match. At some stage someone else is going to have to step up.
Openers Ben Duckett and Jacob Bethell are yet to contribute. Harry Brook is also yet to manage a score. Their options for change are limited as Tom Banton and Liam Dawson have both been released from the squad for the Blast finals day. One would assume they won't be involved. James Coles is an option but they're not going to pick another all-rounder.
The hosts do appear to be rotating the quicks with Gus Atkinson in for Josh Tongue last time. Tongue could return with Jofra Archer due a rest.
Possible XI: Duckett, Bethell, Root, Brook, S Curran, Buttler, Jacks, Atkinson, Rashid, Tongue, Saqib
India continue to cull senior players at white-ball level. Rohit Sharma has been told that he is not part of their World Cup plans for 2027 so it is reasonable to reckon that this will be his last match.
It follows a trend of moving on from players, like Sanju Samson and Sky Yadav in T20. In terms of run-getting, Rohit has looked a little unsure in this series but his returns over the last 12 months have been as good as anyone.
The tourists have selection issues to solve. Washington Sundar is out with injury. This gives them a great opportunity to pick Kuldeep Yadav, another who may feel the axe is hanging over him despite having a perfectly acceptable record. It has been a major surprise that Kuldeep's wristspin has not been used against England this series.
However, with concerns about the batting after a flop in Cardiff India may feel nervous about Kuldeep at No 8. They also have KL Rahul to return to the side after illness and his replacement, Ishan Kishan, could keep his place.
If Kuldeep is to play it could be in place of Shivam Dube, who is having a poor series, or a pacer. Potentially Gurnoor Brar who was pricey in Wales.
Possible XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Ishan, Shreyas, Rahul, Axar, Dube, Kuldeep, Bumrah, Prasidh
England v India third ODI pitch report
There have been four ODI in the last five years at Lord's. All of them were won by the side batting first. That toss bias is confirmed over a longer study period. Extend the filter to ten years and 14 matches and 11 have been won by the defender.
It would be reasonable to expect an attritional affair if the Test pitch earlier this summer is anything to go by. The square has been worked on and redeveloped with limited success in terms of making it a fair fight between bat and ball. There has been little encouragement in terms of trends for runs in the Blast or Championship to suggest we're about to get a road.
Pace off should be the order of the day and getting plenty of overs into the spinners. England have been reluctant to do that with Adil Rashid bowling only five in Cardiff. As for India, surely this is the time for Kuldeep?
Sportsbook quote England for the highest total match runs line at 286.5 and that very much has the feel of a short at 5/61.84. India's line is 282.5. There remains limited evidence that England are superior in terms of runmaking. No rain is forecast.
England v India third ODI match prediction
That heavy toss bias at Lord's will be welcome news to England, who need all the help they can get when batting first. A reminder: this contest pits England, the worst defenders in the world, against the best chasers. It's 13 defeats in their last 17 when batting first for the hosts.
If England can't bust that sequence at HQ, they can't do it anywhere. But that doesn't mean we would back them to do so. It is true that we will have to park India in the chase as a strategy but we are more than happy to have the toss on side for India.
It is still fair to rate them as a superior outfit to England, by dint of better form over the last two years. There is no data which suggests England should be favourites.
Chuck in the toss bias and India are a strong bet. If they can get their selection right in finding room for Kuldeep, then a heavy Lord's surface should aid them. Expect India to take the series 2-1 batting first. Inflated odds on India are an option. You can bet 7/42.75 they win it with both teams scoring 225. That just about keeps onside an expected difficult surface.
England v India third ODI player bets
Joe Root has taken his win rate to 40% with back-to-back wins. A third would be highly unusual but we note that Daryl Mitchell made it six straight in the recent West Indies-New Zealand ODI. That has to be a record.
There's not much for Root to bat and it is understandable that a wager on him for a milestone at least is an option. On a potentially tricky surface with spin at both ends it stands to reason that England's best technician and player of tweak stands up to be counted again. He is even money for 40 or more.
Kuldeep is an eyecatcher for top India bowler. He will turn the ball into the right-handed batter. There's no guarantee that India apply basic common sense but the Lord's slope should help him. He has to bowl from the Pavilion End. It wouldn't be very bright to ask him to turn the ball up the hill. Sportsbook offer 7/24.50.
Back Kuldeep Yadav top India bowler