- No trend/stat for England win
- India can chase big
- Moeen and Kohli top bat bets
England v India
Thursday 10 October, 08:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Team news
Rishabh Pant replaced Dinesh Karthik for India's final group success against Zimbabwe. It would be odd if he didn't continue with India seemingly moving on from Karthik.
They could be ruthless with the bowlers, too. India may choose to bring in Yuz Chahal for Mohammad Shami or Bhuv Kumar to exploit a worn surface.
Otherwise India's batting as a collective is yet to fire. Suryakumar yadav and Virat Kohli are doing all the heavy lifting, although KL Rahul has started to find form.
Dawid Malan looks likely to miss out with a hamstring injury meaning Phil Salt is expected to come into the side. That would continue England's batting-heavy strategy.
How the batting order shapes up is anyone's guess, though. Salt could open or bat as a finisher. Moeen Ali may be promoted to No 3 if the latter was the outcome if they wanted to retain Ben Stokes at No 3.
Mark Wood had an injury scare before the off but he is expected to be fit. England are likely to resist the temptation for another bowling option in the form of David Willey.
Probable XI: Buttler, Hales, Stokes, Brook, Moeen, Salt, Livingstone, S Curran Woakes Rashid Wood
Pitch report
It has been confirmed that the match will be played on a used surface. That's surprising for a game of this magnitude. It probably suits India, who are more used to slow and low tracks. But it scuppers confidence in a runfest. Adelaide is normally good for batting but it would be unwise to play overs on the par line. Instead the shrewd money is to go low.
How to play
It is increasingly tricky to make a case for an England victory. The stats and trends (even the surface) are significant obstacles to a final place.
Let's start with the toss. If India bat first, they have the ability to utilise a solid bias in their favour (17 wins from 25) and England's dodgy record in a chase. England have won four of their last 13.
Two of those wins came in this World Cup in unconvincing fashion against Afghanistan and Sri Lanka and India will note the issues they had against spin in those games.
What if England bat first? Well, then they have to bust another trend and that is India's remarkable record in a chase. In the last two years they've chased 19 times and won 16 of them.
England's only hope is a batting display for the ages. And yet the data says they're way down on batting boundary percentage, performing worse that supposed minnows. India meanwhile are outperforming them with bat and ball.
Finally, there's the head-to-heads. India won in England in the summer and have won five of the last eight.
The match odds market splits India at 1.8810/11 and England at 2.1211/10. India are a confident selection. If they chase, we expect them to get up to 180.
Tops value
Kohli has an excellent record at Adelaide and if England go at him with pace on short, square boundaries he is a wager at 7/2. That's an edge on win rate. Yadav is also a bet on win rate at the same price.
For England, Moeen is hugely underrated. We have him slightly bigger than 4/1 on two-year form yet Sportsbook go 17/1. There is a small chance he could bat at No 3 or at least one spot higher.