England v India
Friday 1 July, 10:30
TV: live on Sky Sports
In the runs
Cheteshwar Pujara was dropped for India's two-Test series versus Sri Lanka in March, threatening to end a sequence where he has played in at least one Test since his debut in 2010.
Rohit Sharma's race to be fit in time following a Covid test gives Pujara a chance to keep his run going. Regardless, he should probably be in the team on runscoring form alone.
In a concerted effort to revive his international career, Pujara agreed to a county stint with Sussex specifically to stake a claim for this very match. It was a move which as at least paid off handsomely for the coastal county.
Pujara has batted eight times for Sussex and scored two centuries and two double centuries.
With India coming into the series cold with a solitary warm-up against Leicestershire, it would be a surprise if they didn't pick the one player they have who is acclimatised.
Alas, Pujara scored a duck in that game but we won't be put off backing him if he plays. What is key is price, and working out the best market to follow him on.
At 9/2 for top india bat in the first dig, we are slightly wary of his win rate. Five wins in 46 is a record which justified his axing. At 10% it's a long way from implied probability of 18%. If we take that bet we have to do it on the basis that county form justifies the gap.
The same goes for prices for a first-innings fifty or century at 8/5 and 7/1 respectively. In the last three years Pujara has six of the former in 27 and zero of the latter. We're very much recognising that historical form may have to go out of the window. He did manage two fifties in second-innings last summer against England.
Perhaps the happy medium is taking Sportsbook's player performance bet. They offer 5/6 over 69.5 (1 point per run, 10 per catch). His average make-up over the last three years is 57.
As ever, we point out the poor value on Virat Kohli on win rate for most India first-innings runs even a boosted 3/1. We're disappointed Sportsbook are not offering better odds on Shardul Thakur at 22s. Still, alongside Ravi Jadeja at 16s and Ravi Ashwin at 33s the trio have strong claims for small interests considering India could get rolled first up.
India top batsman wins/matches
Kohli 13/44
Pujara 5 t/46
Ashwin 1/36
Pant 3/30
Pope back
Jonny Bairstow was the dominant, destructive force in England's batting re-charge. Sportsbook have reacted by pricing him at 7/2 for top England bat.
It's no way near on his win rate but we recognise that at the blistering rate of his scoring, it may not be the most important metric any more for this England team. Past form is looking increasingly irrelevant as England adopt a white-ball approach to their red-ball rusncoring.
Even so, Bairstow's shortening lets us in for a more traditional wager. For the third Test at Leeds we were bemoaning Ollie Pope being cut to 7/2. He is back out now to 5/1 and that is a play.
Pope suddenly looks at home at No 3 and big knocks at Trent Bridge and in the chase at Leeds have ended doubts about his ability at the top level. With five wins from 23 we have five points in our favour on win rate versus implied probability.
It's the best way to get with him in terms of value. Backing him for a fifty may seems easier but the 17/10 is too skinny, likewise the 8.1 for a century based on how often he achieves either.
Joe Root is boosted to 23/10 for top bat and is even money and 9/4 for a fifty or ton respectively in first innings.
Top England bat wins/matches last 3 years
Crawley 4/24
Pope 5/23
Root 10/39
Stokes 4/28
Bairstow 3/22
Foakes 1/8
Trading advice for England v India on Cricket...Only Bettor