England reverse fortunes/h2>
England have dominated day two and it's fair to say that history is being repeated from Lord's. The side batting first has crumbled and are on course for defeat. It's just that England got to bowl first this time.
The hosts are no better than 1.091/11 with South Africa 17.016/1 and the draw 32.031/1. The match odds are here.
What we're left with is working out exactly how the defeat is realised. Do South Africa manage to take it into a fourth day? Can they avoid an innings defeat? or, more pertinently, is Sportsbook's runs line a bit toppy?
Currently they have them in for over/under 297.5 at 10/11. In the context of the Test it might appear about right because of the flat nature of the wicket. After all, if Stuart Broad can biff a rate of 150 and Ollie Robinson can look fluent then shorting might be nerve-wracking.
Pressure might have something to do with it. South Africa were under a lot. And will continue to be. England are not under any sort of strain. This is perhaps why we saw some muddled thinking from Saffer skip Dean Elgar who is having a stinker of a game. He went all in on the decision to bowl first and his house of cards have collapsed.
Historically South Africa are going to have to go some. In the last three years in third-innings they have busted that mark only once - against New Zealand in February when they notched 354 for nine declared in game they dominated.
Away from home in third dig over a greater study period of five years, South Africa average 20.7 runs per wicket.
In 11 third-innings at home in which England have bowled out an opponent in the last five years, they have conceded more than Sportsbook's quote just twice. Three times has a side declared on 298 or more, however. On the above two metrics it would appear the balance is in favour of an under.
What is in their favour is historical data at Old Trafford. The average runs per wicket in third-innings in the last five years is more than 30.
Kyle could be the pick/h2>
There are slim picking when it comes to trying to find a winner for top South Africa runscorer. The numbers below for the top four are very disappointing indeed.
Therefore a gamble on the middle- to lower-order could be the way to play. Rassie van der Dussen and Kyle Verreynne stand out.
Van der Dussen, who is available at 4/1 on the exchange, may well be playing for his Test future. That might be a negative despite a decent runs per innings return, albeit from a small study sample. Keep an eye out for 5/1 or better with Sportsbook in-play.
Verreynne has a strong number behind him but appears to have a habit of getting out when set. Arguably he should have been an 8/1 winner in the first-innings. The 6.005/1 on the exchange isn't much fun and we'll look for something similar from the first dig in-play. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
Runs per third innings last five years
Elgar 26 (19 inns)
Erwee 14 (5)
Petersen 23 (3)
Markram 24 (14)
Van der Dussen 42 (6)
Verreynne 43 (5)
Maharaj 13.5 (13)
Rabada 13.2 (14)
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