Short Saffer runs
England closed on day two 124 runs behind behind a resolute South Africa. They are out to 3.6553/20 with South Africa 1.548/15 and the draw 12.5023/2. And it was a chastening day in more ways than one.
The Bazball protagonists got a taste of their own medicine in the final half hour. Keshav Maharaj and Marco Jansen could have been forgiven for trying to survive until tomorrow and eke out precious runs. Instead they got on the front foot (and back foot) and went on the attack.
In the context of what England have achieved this summer it is perhaps not surprising. Trends are coped after all, that's what makes them trends. Yet it was quite something to see the South Africans throw caution to the wind.
They have, historically, been a chronically safety-first team, often beset by negativity and insecurity. Dean Elgar and Sarel Erwee's resolute displays set a platform of sort for the dashers and thrashers. It augurs well for their prospects in this series that they were flexible enough to recognise the opportunity and launch again.
Keshav Maharaj's 41-ball 49 could have been dismissed as a last stand. But with Kagiso Rabada, who has worked tirelessly on his batting, it was hardly a shot-to-nothing.
Hopefully they come out swinging again. Jansen continued to take it on until the final balls. And with a new ball three overs away, South Africa's runs line may be a bit toppy at 334.5 to go under at 10/11. Jansen will not have the same rhythm as the night before and England will be keen to mop up quickly.
Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
Rare Root bet
Joe Root may consider himself unlucky to have been given leg-before in the first-innings. Statistically, he is worth following to make amends in the second-innings.
Root is a source of frustration for punters a lot of the time. The best batter of his generation for England and one of their best of all time, he is, as you would expect, prohibitively short. The bookmakers rarely want to take a chance on him.
So he is often poor value to win a market, particularly in first-innings. Prior to the first dig at HQ, Root had ten wins in his previous 40. At Sportsbook's 13/5 he was out of win-rate value range by 2.8%.
The good news is that second innings is where he can be most profitable. In the last two years Root has won eight times in 23. Sportsbook go 13/5 again. That's an implied probability of 28.5%. How often he wins suggests his probability should be 34.7%.
Better news is hat he has little to beat in terms of temperament and talent and the data. Jonny Bairstow has two wins in 16 so Sportsbook's 7/2 is no fun. Ben Stokes has one win in 14 so we can avoid the 6/1.
Ollie Pope, who was value on top bat for the first-innings and duly copped, is not a bet at the same price in the second. He has zero wins in 14.
With the weather forecast predicting plenty of sun, bowling conditions are unlikely to be helpful for long for South Africa. The Dukes ball once again went soft far too quickly in South Africa's innings and a flat-looking surface is conducive for big scores. Expect Root to go close to getting one.
Top England runscorer wins/2nd innings last two years
Root 8/23
Crawley 3/17
Bairstow 2/16
Stokes 1/14
Lees 1/7
Pope 0/14