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Favourites Sixers should rightfully reach the final
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Shaun Marsh to top the Renegades rankings
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A fit Ben McDermott finishes as top Hobart bat
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Squad churn key
The Big Bash's appeal continues to diminish and its twelfth edition is threatened by the likelihood that its is merely a warm-up for a chunk of players for chunkier pay cheques in the new UAE and South Africa franchise leagues which start on January 13 and 10 respectively.
At least 14 players across the eight franchises will depart. It is not unusual for there to be turnarounds in teams. However, this time the pool of players to pluck replacements from is almost non-existent. For the denouement we expect this to be a domestic competition.
In such chaos there is opportunity. The teams which have not been swayed by the big names in big demand have an advantage. Keeping a tightknit squad with minimal churn is likely to be rewarded. And punters who recognise the importance of that should be rewarded.
Unfortunately, that doesn't mean we're playing a big-priced outright pick. It should surprise no one that Sydney Sixers, for so long the smartest team in the Bash, have once again made the right call. Blessed with a roster of fair dinkum Aussie talent a fourth consecutive final appearance should be relatively simple.
James Vince and Chris Jordan are currently scheduled to leave (for Gulf Giants in the UAE) and Sixers have the depth to cope thanks to a glut of all-rounders, the most eyecatching being Hayden Kerr who has player of the tournament potential. Kerr took a wicket ever 12 balls last season and is 33/1 for top wicket-taker.
The signing of Perth's Kurtis Patterson, who was top runscorer for the champions last term, might just be the most astute piece of business of all and there should be no worries about rungetting. They rank superbly on batting power and bowling economy as revealed by our team-by-team guide.
Sixers appeal
Sixers are the right favourites for glory. The best prices are available are the 4.804/1 on Betfair Exchange to win the thing and 2.608/5 to make the final. Given that the best team in the competition (by definition of ladder winner) has won only three times the latter may be a shrewd pick.
The other franchise that are of interest are Hobart Hurricanes, who are 4.904/1. It looks a mean price when you consider that they were mediocre with bat and ball last season and finished fifth.
Yet the market is wise. They have also swerved UAE- and South Africa-bound players. Instead their strategy is to pick a trio of Pakistan's top performers - Asif Ali, Shadab Khan and Faheem Ashraf. It could be a masterstroke.
It is not without risk, however. Shadab is certain to be involved for Pakistan in New Zealand for games from January 11-15. There is no guarantee he returns. Faheem may be on Test duty until the second week of January, too.
Ben McDermott, injury permitting, should be an ever-present. His data is phenomenal in the last two years and at 7/5 has little to beat for top Hobart bat. He could be the bet of the tournament alongside the 7/2 that Shaun Marsh tops for Melbourne Renegades.
Sydney Thunder may have the squad most likely to challenge their crosstown rivals. Unfortunately they lose three of them. When Alex Hales, Rilee Rossouw and Faz Farooqi leave to wear a different hue of pyjama they may take their hopes elsewhere. It is likely to have an unsettling impact on those who have taken Sportsbook's 11/2 that they win the trophy, too.
Perth, the defending champs, should make the play-offs but they've lost too many runs (Patterson, Mitchell Marsh, Laurie Evans) to reckon they're value at 9/2. Jhye Richardson is second to Kerr on strike rate and should be slightly skinnier than 10/1 for top overall bowler.
Melbourne Stars are strong with domestic talent. And if only Glenn Maxwell hadn't broken his leg we'd have been all over them at 13/2. They have a very strong bowling group (look out for Brody Couch). It could be that Maxwell makes a miracle-quick recovery and Stars do the opposite from last season when they went off like the proverbial before Covid hit them hard and they fell away.
How they finish Sixers, Stars, Hobart, Perth, Thunder, Strikers, Renegades, Heat