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MCG pitch expected to be lively
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South Africa batting poor
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Smith 6/1 for first-innings century
Australia v South Africa
Sunday 25 December 23.30
TV: Live on BT Sports
Team news
Australia must decide whether to change a winning XI and bring back a fit-again Josh Hazlewood for Scott Boland. It would certainly be harsh on the latter.
Boland has had a terrific start to his Test career - he averages just over 10 - and has consistently taken wickets in clusters. Boland is also considered an MCG specialist.
However, Hazlewood is considered 'the man in possession' and has been an automatic pick when fit. If he is anything less than 100% afterr a side strain he wil be left out.
With the bat, Australia would like David Warner to get runs but Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith have been in reliable touch.
Probable XI: Warner, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Boland, Lyon
South Africa have a terrific bowling line-up, as witnessed when rolling Australia for 218 on a poor pitch at The Gabba. But they can't bat, as witnessed when being rolled for 152 and 99.
They don't boast a batter with an average of more than 40 and talk of batting coaches working hard on technical points in the nets post Gabba is all too little too late.
In an effort to squeeze more runs from their limited line-up they could fall into the trap of weakening their pace attack. All-rounder Marco Jansen may lose his place to Theunis de Bruyn.
Possible XI: Elgar, Erwee, Van der Dussen, Zhondo, Bavuma, De Bruyn, Verreynne, Maharaj, Rabada, Ngidi, Nortje
Pitch report
The MCG pitch was tricky for batters in the last Ashes Test and ended on day three with Boland taking six for seven. A similarly lively surface could be expoected although it would be hard to match the terror track that was The Gabba.
There have been only two scores of more than 300 in the past 11 innings at the 'G and given South Africa's shaky batting, shorting their runs again seems an obvious approach. Laying 275 or more at around even money or 2.1011/10 should be an option.
How to play
Australia are 1.351/3, South Africa 5.805/1 and the draw 9.4017/2. Only one price is of interest to backers. And that's South Africa.
There is room in that price for a trade purely because on a possibly bowler-friendly surface they have an attck which is threatening and potent. But they're only a bet with ball in hand. Keep your powder dry when they are batting.
Bowling first they could be a trade into something like 3.505/2. If they're batting first then the starting off point could be around 7.006/1.
Tops value
With South Africa's batting dodgy, taking big prices on Keshav Maharaj at 33s or Jansen at 20s for top SA bat in the first dig has some rationale.
Labuschagne, Smith and Head are 6/1, 6/1 and 7/1 for a first-innings century and 11/4, 3/1 and 9/2 respectively for top bat. Boland is 3/1 for top Australia bowler in the first-innings.