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Three SA batters to bet
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Rabada to the fore
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Khawaja dominant
Australia v South Africa
Saturday 25 December, 23:30
TV: Live on BT Sports
Bavuma a bet
The South Africa batting line-up could be classed as masquerading as an international top-echelon unit. Not one of them averages more than 40. The top bat market in the first innings looks wide open.
There is a strong temptation given their record for being rolled so cheaply to bet lower-order batters at big prices. On win rates Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj and Kagiso Rabada all rate value at 20s, 33s and 50s with Sportsbook.
However, Temba Bavuma, a proper gritty batter capable of dropping anchor, is also underrated. The five per cent edge afford by Sportsbook about a man with a sound technique has great appeal. He should be skinnier than 4/1.
Top South Africa bat wins/matches last two years
Bavuma 3/12
Erweer 2/8
Elgar 2/17
Jansen 1/8
Rabada 1/13
Verreynne 1/12
Maharaj 1/16
Van der Dussen 0/14
Top South Africa bowler wins/matches last two years
Rabada 4 t/13
Nortje 3/10
Ngidi 2/11
Jansen 2/8
KG weighed in?
Kagiso Rabada has an excellent record in the last two years on top South Africa bowler. And Sportsbook give up a sizeable chunk on win rate versus implied probability at 5/2.
The worry is that a potentially tricky batting pitch at the MCG reduce the gulf between him and his rivals, who are hardly carthorses. Anrich Nortje and Lungi Ngidi are potentially lethal while Marco jansen is no slouch, either. Nortje is 3/1. Jansen and Ngidi are 7/2 and 4/1 respectively.
It is worth noting that Sportsbook have priced Rabada at 12/1 to win man of the match. Jansen, given his batting talent, also looks big at 33/1.
Ahead of the pack
Travis Head goes for a hat-trick of top bat wins in this match. But he's hard to support despite form and win rate considering his price has been chopped from 7/1 to 9/2.
It's a competitive heat, too. Usman Khawaja has been the outstanding follow on this market with Marnus Labuschagne predictably consistent. They are 11/4 and 4/1 respectively. Steve Smith has been among the runs this summer for Australia but it's not translated into wins and the 3/1 is as expected.
Top Australia bat wins/matches last two years
Khawaja 5/10
Head 4/13
Labuschagne 4/16
Smith 2/16
Warner 0/15
Top Australia bowler wins/matches last two years
Cummins 4 3t/14
Starc 4 3/16
Lyon 2 4t/16
Boland 1/5
Hazlewood 1/6
*Read the second Test match preview here