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Battle of the quicks
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Smith 5/4 for first-dig 50
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Potential for South Africa to be rolled
Australia v South Africa
Saturday 17 December, 00:20
TV: Live on BT Sports
Team news
Australia are without Josh Hazlewood (he could miss Boxing Day at the 'G, too) but the emergence of Scott Boland means that it is not the significant blow of the past.
Boland, a superstar in the Ashes, returned with a triple-wicket maiden against West Indies. He finds Test cricket very simple. Michael Neser misses out as skip Pat Cummins returns.
The batting looks in terrific touch. Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith and Travis Head are in formidable form, so much so that David Warner's lean spell is not a worry. Cameron Freen's class could tell in this series, too once he's had crease time.
Probable XI: Warner, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Boland, Lyon
South Africa have to make decision about playing an extra batter or playing to their strengths. And that is their ferocious and potentially brutal pace attack. Anrich Nortje, Lungi Ngidi, Kagiso Rabada and Matt Jansen could unleash hell.
It is not the South African way, though, to be positive. They are already making noises about batting cover. So Jansen or Keshav Maharaj, a classy spinner, may have to miss out.
And to be fair the batting looks flaky. There is no-one in the line-up who will concern Australia, frankly.
Possible XI: Elgar, Erwee, van der Dussen, Bavuma, Zondo, De bruyn, Verreynne, Maharaj, Rabada, Ngidi, Nortje
Pitch report
Visiting teams in the first match innings have trouble getting to grip with The Gabba wicket. The mosty recent five scores read: 147-240-144-302-408. It's a combination of alien wickets and strong home attack.
With the South Africa batting looking frail, there should be option for a lay of their runs. We may get even money to go under 280.
In the same study period (albeit their first-innings) Australia have busted 400 twice and 500 three times. Whether they do again sets the tone for the series one suspects.
Australia are 1.4840/85, South Africa 5.309/2 and the draw 7.06/1. At the odds, we're left with trying to decipher whether the Saffers are value.
And it's all about the ball. Their pace attack has significant potential. It is probably the most fearsome attack to arrive on these shores for years. Certainly stronger than the collection India used to win last year.
That is the blueprint for South Africa. For movement in that price, though, they probably need to bowl first and get among Australia quickly. That is a difficult task given the stats above. If they bat first they could quickly be double the price after being bowled out.
If so, they may be worth risking at twice the price for a simple trade on Aussie wickets. There could be a chunk available for a back-to-lay in the second match dig.
Tops value
Labuschagne made three tons in the series against West Indies and it's no surprise to see him favourite with Sportsbook to top score for Australia in the first at 5/2. Fellow runmachines Smith and Head are 11/4 and 7/1 respectively.
On a potential flat deck, though, we advise playing to score a fifty/century markets. For the latter Labuschagne, Smith and Head all have appeal at 4/1, 4/1 and 6/1 respectively. The most solid bet may be Smith at 5/4 for a fifty. We've never been so keen on him following remodelling work.
For South Africa the potential for a low score winning is there so Keshav Maharaj and Marco Jansen have big-priced appeal at 33s and 50s. With the ball Ngidi, an out-and-out wicket-taker, is underrated for most SA wickets in the first dig at 4s.