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India strong and settled
- Head and Abbott out
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Carrara pitch may be for batters
- Gill in need of a score
- Short should open for Australia
Australia v India
Thursday 6 November, 08.15
TV: Live on TNT
Australia v India Fourth T20 team news
Australia have more squad churn with Travis Head and Sean Abbott now rested as they look ahead to the Ashes. Ben Dwarshuis has been added to the group with Josh Hazlewood sitting out the rest of the series from game four.
With no Head, though, the big question is over who opens with Mitchell Marsh. The most likely candidate may be Matt Short. Short is an opener by trade and has played the majority of T20i in that position. Mitch Owen may be another option.
With the ball Adam Zampa could replace Matt Kuhneman. Nathan Ellis and Xavier Bartlett should also be part of the new-ball partnership. Glenn Maxwell is fit again after a wrist injury
Possible Australia XI: Marsh, Head, Inglis, David, Maxwell, Short, Stoinis, Bartlett, Dwarshuis, Ellis, Zampa/Kuhnemann
India levelled the series in Hobart, showing their class in a comfortable chase despite a challenging total of 187. It would be a surprise if they made changes to their XI with five frontline bowlers and Tilkak Varma and Abhishek Sharma available for emergency overs.
The batters aren't quite firing, though. Washington Sundar and Jitesh Sharma had the platform to attack and finish the game but India would like runs from the likes of Shubman Gill and Varma. Gill has been hugely diappointing on the white-ball tour. He has a highest score of 37 across the six matches so far.
Probable India XI: Ahbhishek, Gill, Sky, Samson, Tilak, Axar, Dube, Harshit, Kuldeep, Bumrah, Varun
Australia v India Fourth T20 pitch report
There are few reliable trends to bet on for Cararra. For example, there have been only two t20i at night. One was a ten-over thrash by South Africa. In the other Australia chased West indies' 145 in 2022. In all night matches, including the Big Bash, there was a runs per over mark of 8.3. There is no toss bias.
In the last Bash match played there in January, Strikers were beaten by Thunder's 214. Indeed, in the Bash the ground has the sixth-highest batting strike rate of venues (14) to have hosted ten matches. That suggests batters could dominate and we are aware of the uptick in runs domestically to internationally on some of these grounds. No rain is forecast.
India's total match runs are available at 178.5 at 5/61.84. Both teams to score 170 may be the better option, however at 10/111.91. Both teams for 200 is 15/28.50.
Australia v India Fourth T20 match prediction
These pages have been consistent in arguing that India are the better team. That view has not changed after the win in Hobart. Indeed, it is fair to expect India to comfortably go on to win the series with the Aussies distracted.
The hosts have made plenty of changes to the squad since ball one of this series and it is right to be perturbed by change. Players like rhtythm, knowing their roles and the opportunity to put together carefully laid plans. With so many ins and outs, Australia are playing on the hoof.
Contrast that to India who are settled and beginning to purr. The match odds market has them as 1.855/6 favourites and that is bang on.
Australia v India Fourth T20 ODI player bets
The clear angle on batters to follow is Short at 5/16.00. If we're right about him opening then we can be happy with a wager which is at least a point too big. it's the same price as Maxwell, who might not bat higher than No 6. For India, Axar Patel still looks to be a little toppy at 11s given his batting position at No 6. Again, contrast to that Maxwell price.
There is also value on top bowler for the hosts. Ben Dwarshuis is underrated at 7/24.50 and would be clear favourite in our book. He has won five of his last eight and although that win rate will be pulled back to the pack at some stage we will be betting him both games.
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