- Win or go home in crunch game
- Australia make no appeal as odds-on favs
- Top Bat markets the way to play
Australia v England
Friday 28 September, 09:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Team news
Australia are back on track thanks to a thumping innings by Marcus Stoinis against Sri Lanka. It could well be the innings which gives them a surge of confidence to not look back following that stinker against the Kiwis.
However, it would be remiss not to point out that Aaron Finch continues to struggle for runs, Pat Cummins remains expensive and Ashton Agar is not as good a spinner as Adam Zampa. David Warner could do with getting a score, too.
Probable XI: Warner, Finch, M Marsh, Maxwell, Stoinis, David, Wade, Agar, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood
If Australia have issues, so do England. Their pace attack was taken apart by Ireland in the first 10 overs, a run glut that eventually cost them the game. But what can they do about it?
Chris Woakes looks vulnerable to losing his spot to David Willey. Woakes really should have relished the swinging conditions at the 'G against Ireland.
They also have issues with the bat, predominantly Ben Stokes. Who'd have thought that a player who had shown little aptitude for this format at the top level over the last few years would come in cold and struggle?
Possible XI: Buttler, Hales, Malan, Stokes, Brook, Moeen, Livingstone, S Curran, Willey, Rashid, Wood
Pitch report
The MCG conditions have been conducive to pace bowlers, except England's. In a tournament where the degrees of seam and swing variation have never been higher since 2010, it is no surprise the batters have struggled. And with cloud and rain forecast, it's another opportunity to go low on runs. There should be reasonably cheap lays for either team batting first for 160 or more.
How to play
Following England's dominant display in the three-match series between the sides that preceded the tournament and Australia's hammering against New Zealand, this game was earmarked as a maximum bet on Jos Buttler's team. Not anymore.
England's batting foibles were exposed by Afghanistan and Ireland took advatnage of those woes. For too long England have been losing two or more wickets in the powerplay, threatening their aggressive intent.
We expect both teams to be nervous about batting first given the seam and swing likelihood, not least because the loser is almost certainly out of the tournament. But both teams have poor records batting first. England have lost nine of their 12 batting second.
Their could be plenty of flips but, on balance, we don't think the Aussies are fair 1.834/5 chances. This should be a close affair.
Tops value
England's haemorrhaging of wickets in the pwoerplay is one reason why Moeen Ali is out of line at 12/1 on recent win rate on top England bat. He could also be a pick on the basis of overs being reduced. Dawid Malan, Stokes and Harry Brook could all be held back with Moeen and Liam Livingstone (17/2) promoted.
For Australia, Matthew Wade has a better win record than the 16/1 suggests. He's only a pick with weather not intervening. With bopwlers to fore an honorable mention to Cummins at 40/1.