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Guyana have messed up top-two chance
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Falcons eye play-off bid
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Big price on Sampson must be taken
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Royals & Pats unlikely contenders
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Bridgetown pitch full of runs
Guyana Amazon Warriors v Antigua & Barbuda Falcons
Thursday 11 September, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT
Guyana Amazon Warriors v Antigua & Barbuda Falcons CPL Tips
Guyana Amazon Warriors missed an opportunity to put themselves in a terrific position to finish in the top two. After St Lucia Kings were stunned by Barbados Royals and having beaten Trinbago in their previous outing, the route was clear.
But they were themselves shocked by the Patriots as they were denied a 70% win rate at their home ground of Providence. All seemed well at the break with only 150 required for the win but their batting never got going and they went down by five runs.
That loss means they now need to win their last three and squeeze into the top two potentially on run rate. Otherwise they will have to make the final the hard way. Falcons will go to 11 points with a win so can only finish in third or fourth despite beating Royals last time.
Falcons know exactly what is coming at Providence. A test against spin. Guyana bowled 14 overs of it versus Patriots. They were also razed by Imran Tahir in the previous meeting when the spinner took five with Falcons chasing an improbable 211. The Providence pitch is not as conducive to runmaking as that surface was in North Sound. Falcons unders 156.5 match runs has the feel of a sell therefore at 5/61.84.
Tahir is 16/54.20 for top bowler for GAW while Sportsbook offer 14s about a repeat player of the match award. If it does spin again and the pitch is tacky and slow, then big top-bat prices will also catch the eye.
Trying to predict who opens for Guyana alongside Ben McDermott has been a fun game. We have correctly called Gudakesh Motie and Moeen Ali so far. Both have failed to take their chance. There's nothing more infuriating in this game than correctly identifying a hitter moved up to open only him to flop at massive prices with a win there for the taking. Keemo Paul, tried in the role before, could be worth a follow 18s while Quentin Sampson is a left-field shout at 75/1.
All-rounder Sampson has shown decent striking form for Guyana and could be tried up front. He has been picked for his hitting, getting them close against Pats and previously smashing 33 from 20 against Royals.
Back Quentin Sampson top GAW bat
Barbados Royals v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots
Friday 12 September, 00:00
TV: Live on TNT
Barbados Royals v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots CPL Tips
Royals got their first win of the season at the sixth attempt last time out. And what a win. They downed the table-topping Kings in spectacular style. Now all they need to do is win their final three matches by whopping margins and Guyana to lose all theirs and they can squeeze into fourth.
It's not going to happen, of course, but they at least restored some pride. Having lost Quentin de Kock early on they recovered to post 191. Rovman Powell smashed 41 from 17 balls and they looked a dangerous batting unit. Indeed, a front six of De Kock-King-Alleyne-Rassie-Rutherford-Powell should be more than good enough to make the latter stages.
They do look weak with the ball, though, and Daniel Sams and Ramon Simmonds produced three-wicket shows apiece to ensure the chase was never really a contest. On a Bridgetown surface which looks conducive for batting first and going big, it would be a surprise if they pulled off something similar.
Pats are still in the hunt thanks to the win over Guyana. But it's another unlikely scenario. They must win and by a big margin, then hope results elsewhere go their way. They will be happier to be on a flat surface, though.
With both teams perhaps keen to throw caution to the wind and the track good, runs flowing is not a bad shout. The surface at the Kensington Oval looks beautiful with a terrific sheen. It should be fast and flat. Going overs on the 20-over par line in the late 180s is an early strategy.
One man we will not be following for a big one is de Kock. He looked in terrible touch against Kings, losing his wicket to a no-ball and then hitting one straight up in the air moments later. It was utterly bizarre for such an experienced player to appear so clueless.