Ed Hawkins has all the data, trends and tips for the CPL action on Tuesday ahead of the double header from Warner Park...
"These are the two slowest scoring sides in the tournament and the shrewdies will be looking to short the par runs line"
Barbados Royals v Guyana Amazon Warriors
Wednesday 8 September 00.00
TV: live on BT Sport
Win or bust
Royals have got to go now or they go home. With one win in six they can ill afford to lose another match. They would be up against it to qualify even with three wins in their final four.
It's been a frustrating season for them because they have had games in their pockets, notably against league leaders Patriots. Their last outing was against Guyana. It wasn't a contest as they stumbled to 130 all out and went down by nine wickets.
Batting frailty is not helped by the fact they seem to change their order every single match. Jason Holder is now in the lower-order having been up at No 3 at one point.
Posssible XI Charles, Hope, Smit Patel, Philips, Reifer, Azam, Holder, Young, Nurse, Lintott, Thomas
Guyana not for us
Guyana may well make the last four by dint of there being worse teams around rather than being particularly special. We've not enjoyed their performances at all and they appear to be a franchise on the decline.
The batting has been flaky and few would have been surprised had they struggled in that chase. As it was Chandrapaul Hemraj smashed a brilliant century. It was good timing for all concerned. Hemraj was beginning to look a duff pick with back-to-back poor seasons.
Possible XI King, Hemraj, Hafeez, Hetmyer, Pooran, Malik, Shepherd, O Smith, Motie, Sinclair, Tahir
Royals worth a risk
Royals are 2.407/5 here for an 'upset'. It's a chunky old price and so long as you are aware that you're backing a side which is not in a false position - against one which is flattering to deceive - it's not a bad wager.
The real shrewdies will be shorting the runs par line here, though. These are the two slowest scoring teams in the tournament. Going under the mid 150s could pay.. The TKR-Tallawahs first-innings was pitched at 160.5 so we could get 155.5.
Sportsbook have boosted Hemraj to 4/1 for top Guyana bat. That says a lot about his performances in the last three years. Three times he has put together back-to0-back scores of more than 20. Could Romario Shepherd be chucked up the order to flay? Possible. He strikes at 157. The 60/1 is tempting. Nic Pooran and Shimron Hetmyer are 6/1 and 7/2 respectively.
For Royals, Raymon Reifer was tired as a pinch-hitter at No 5 so the 22/1 could be considered a wrong price. Holder is 11/1 and he could also move back up.
Warner Park statistics
Average first innings score last three years 166 (4981/30)
160+ first innings scores 17/31
Won by chaser 17/31 (one tie)
Jamaica Tallawahs v Trinbago Knight Riders
Tuesday 8 September 15.00
TV: live on BT Sport
Trinbago on course
Trinbago recorded their third success of the campaign to get their semi-final bid back on track. That it came against the Tallwahs, who they have now beaten in the last seven head-to-heads, was no surprise.
Big runs for Lendl Simmons was a major boost after they got after a tricky chase of 145. Simmons' 45-ball 70 made all the difference. One could be a little concerned that Trinbago allowed Jamaica to recover from 15 for five but the result rarely looked in doubt.
Possible XI Narine, Simmons, Munro, D Bravo, Pollard, Seifert, Ramdin, Udana, Pierre, Hosein, Rampaul
Tallawahs in a spin
In our preview for the previous meeting on Sunday night, Jamaica's woes against the spin of TKR were highlighted. And so it came to pass. Their top order collapsed and three spinners bowled 12 overs for 51 runs and three wickets.
We expect more of the same, even if they changed up by leaving out Chadwick Walton and Shamarh Brooks. They might also consider the odd call to bat Imad Wasim ahead of Andre Russell. Could it be he was afraid of spin?
Possible XI K McKenzie, K Lewis, Haider Ali, R Powell, Mohammed, Russell, Brathwaite, Imad, Pretorius, Green, Edwards
TKR should be shorter
Jamaica's answer to counter Trinbago's army of spinners was to recognise they have been fielding an XI of all right-handers. The answer? Pick one top-order in leftie Kirk McKenzie. Alas McKenzie, on debut, managed four off ten balls. Back to the drawing board.
In the last four head-to-heads, 19 of the 28 wickets TKR have taken have been by spinners. It makes you wonder what the point of bowling any pacers is. Tallawahs, obviously, need to do something different. Moving up Andre Russell or Carlos Brathwaite to go berserk could be worth a try. Sure, they won't do it but things could hardly go worse.
On an early show you can still get 1.705/7 Trinbago. Surely they should be below that considering recent form, historic form and the technical failings of the Tallawahs?
A runs wager is to go under the par line of JT batting first. They have failed to bust 150 three times in the last four against their rivals. On a wearing pitch they are really up against it.
We want to play Andre Russell at big prices for an in-play top Jamaica bat win. On Sunday we got a nasty sting. The top order was blown away only for Russell to be held back meaning that whopping prices were available because of Brathwaite and Imad Wasim going well. And he ended up facing only eight balls. We'll look for something chunkier this time, starting from 10/1.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l
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