Ed Hawkins finds a 16/5 value bet for the action in the Bash from Docklands on Wednesday
"Opener Inglis has had a surprisingly poor start. Could he get back on track here? He has two fifties in his four outings against the Renegades"
Melbourne Renegades v Perth Scorchers
Wednesday 22 December 08.15
TV: live on Sky Sports
Renegades struggling again
Renegades are in familiar territory three games into their campaign: they're bottom. It's where they finished last season. And the season before that.
They haven't played since December 13, a five-wicket defeat by Brisbane. So they have had the opportunity to reset a record of two losses and one win.
What will help is the return of Aaron Finch. He bolsters a weak batting line-up. The bowling is questionable, too.
A front three of Kane Richardson, Reece Topley and Zahir Khan is decent but they could be in trouble with the fifth and sixth options.
Possible XI: Finch, Harvey, Harper, Maddison, Nabi, Fraser-McGurk, Sutherland, Prest-widge, Richardson, Topley, Zahir
Scorchers storming away
Scorchers have played four and won four. It's quite the effort considering they lost a raft of players from last year's run to the final.
They key has been Kurtis Patterson, who has been in terrific form. He smashed his way to a half-century against Hobart in the latest success. It means that poor returns from Josh Inglis have gone unnoticed. Mitchell Marsh, Ashton Turner and Laurie Evans (in a new role) have been solid in the middle-order.
With the ball, Tymal Mills has been an excellent pick-up. And they have a wealth of bowling options meaning batters can struggle to settle.
Possible XI: Patterson, Inglis, M Marsh, Munro, Evans, Turner, Agar, Tye, Mills, Behrendorff, Haztoglou
The average first-innings total at Docklands is 146. There is no toss bias to get excited about. Interestingly, Renegades lose almost 60% of home games batting first.
That was a trend they managed to snap this season, though, against Strikers when they defended 153.
If Renegades bat first it should pay to get under the innings runs par line. Perth are the meanest bowling unit so far, conceding on average 6.8 runs per over. Renegades are scoring at only 6.3 at 6.5. Going under 145.5 is a wager.
Perth are 1.695/7 favourites for this one with Renegades 2.305/4. We're surprised that Perth are not shorter than that given the respective records of the two teams. And not only this season. Perth have only ever lost three games to Renegades.
We have a rule of not playing at such numbers on jollies but with Perth we'd be prepared to make an exception. Better still, if Renegades can bat first and Finch gets his muscles moving, why not place an order for 1.804/5 on the exchange?
Opener Inglis has had a surprisingly poor start to the Bash after Australia A duty. Could he get back on track here? He has two fifties in his four outings against the Renegades.
Sportsbook go 16/5 about him top scoring for Perth. Paterson is 3/1 and Mitchell Marsh 11/4. Turner is underrated at 12s.
For Renegades, Finch returns with a boosted 11/4 quote. But with such weak batting it may pay to look at bigger numbers. Jake Fraser-McGurk catches the eye at 10s.
With hitting likely to be in short supply the unders sixes and fours markets are noteworthy. Backing both at 10.5 and 24.5 at Evens and 5/6 respectively is an option if not shorting those Renegades runs.
Get a Free £5 Bet – Every Day!
Stake £20 on multiples over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 to use on multiples. Bets must settle before 23:59 on the day they're placed. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply
Ed Hawkins P-L
2021: +40 2020: +5.91 2019: +37.25pts 2018: +23.53pts 2017: +12pts 2016: +18.1pts 2015: +38pts 2014: +31.5pts 2013: +25pts Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l