Ed Hawkins finds wagers at 6/1 and 40/1 as Hobart welcome Brisbane on New Year's Day in the T20 competition...
"Bazley is consistently picking up wickets (two apiece in his last three) and should not be as big as 6/1 for top Heat bowler"
Hobart Hurricanes v Brisbane Heat
Saturday 1 January, 05:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Hobart on a roll
Hobart Hurricanes have four wins from seven and were it not for the form of the Sixers and Scorchers would fancy a tilt at the top two.
They have won their last three as their batting has fired spectacularly. Or, rather, Ben McDermott has. McDermott has hit 127, 110 and 67 in those games after he was promoted to open.
The bowling has not been too shabby, either. An economy rate of 7.9 is strong. Scott Boland is, of course, unavailable due to Ashes commitments while fellow pacer Joel Paris is injured.
Probable XI: McDermott, Wade, Short, Brook, Handscomb, David, Thompson, Rogersm Lamichhane, Meredith
The Heat have always been something of a laughing stock in the Bash. Yet they seem intent on maximum mirth this season.
Two wins from seven is about standard. But the manner of their fifth defeat against the Sixers will take some beating.
Calamitous with the bat, Heat had been bowled out for 109. They then preceded to tear through Sixers, reducing them to 47 for eight, flipping the odds from 40-1. And they still couldn't hold on. The game comes too soon for new signing Fakhar Zaman. Zaman is a replacement for the injured Tom Abell.
Probable XI: Peirson, Lynn, Cooper, Duckett, Heazlett, Bryant, Bartlett, Wildermuth, Bazley, Steketee, Mujeeb
There's a 70% toss bias in the tournament for the team batting first. And a 60% bias for the team batting first at Hobart. These are trends that are impossible to ignore.
More than 170 is a minimum batting first, however. That's the average score. It puts pressure on that Heat batting line-up.
Hopefully they will be put the Sixers slide down as a one-off. The wicket was poor and previously they had hit well. Both teams to score 170 at 7/2 is eye-catching with Sportsbook. Total match runs at more than 320 at 6/5 is also a possible as it keeps a mismatch slightly on side.
Hurricanes are 1.664/6 with Heat 2.486/4. That latter price could well hold even if the flip goes their way. Still, with Heat so unreliable in the field it's one to trade.
If Hurricanes were to bat first then we would expect them to go on and win comfortably. The match odds is likely to react in the same way.
Keep eyes peeled for a jump in odds, though, in case of an early wicket. McDermott's dismissal for example could cause an overreaction and we might get something towards the 1.705/7 mark.
McDermott is 12/5 with Sportsbook for another top Hobart bat win. Do bear in mind, however, that his record is not that string against his former team. He averages 20 with a strike rate of 127. McDermott is 5/1 for man of the match.
For Heat we are still keen on Xavier Bartlett at 40/1 for top runscorer. He has one win and a tie this season and was moved up a place to No 7 last time out against Sixers. Jimmy Peirson has shortened to 7/2 after he opened.
Another Heat player underrated is bowler James Bazley. Bazley is consistently picking up wickets (two apiece in his last three) and should not be as big as 6/1 for top Heat bowler. He is at least good for a tie.
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Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l