Big Bash Tips Matches 37 and 38: How best to back Smith in Bash

• Sixers prepare for must-win match v Heat

• Neighbours Thudner already out

• Smith's win-rates explored

• Strikers-Renegades set for runs

Sydney Sixers v Sydney Thunder Big Bash tips

Sydney Sixers v Sydney Thunder

Friday 16 January, 08.15
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Steve Smith goes again for Sixers as they look to make a late charge for Bash glory. It is not a must-win match for them with their final game against Brisbane Heat a winner-takes-all in terms of making the play-offs. Thunder's campaign ended some time ago.

Smith will be all the rage for runs. He looked set for a big score in the rain-ruined contest against Hurricanes when he was left unbeaten on 19. The good news for this one is that the skies should have cleared following afternoon rain so a full match is expected.

How best to back Smith? Well, he has six wins in his last nine in the Bash for top bat so there is an easy angle with Sportsbook's 5/23.50. Perhaps a less stressful bet will be going long of his performance quote (1pt per run, 10 per catch and 20 per wicket) at 30.5 at 5/61.84. That wins at a rate of 70%.

The Aussie batter, boosted by skippering Australia to Ashes victory, has looked in great touch and he has found the Bash rather easy work. In his previous nine innings before the Hurricanes match he has passed 50 six times, converting three of those into tons. Only twice has he gone under the runs quote. It could be that backing him for a 50 at 11/53.20 is the smartest play just in case he gets pipped by a team-mate. 

Mitchell Starc is set to return to the Bash for the first time in 11 years. He and Smith should both be available for the play-offs if Sixers were to make it. To win the title, though, Sixers will have to win four matches in a row including the match against Heat.

Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Renegades Big Bash tips

Adelaide Strikers v Melbourne Renegades 
Saturday 17 January, 06:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Strikers and Renegades have no hope of qualification for the play-offs so an end-of-season batting frenzy is on the cards as both sides look to cut loose and play with freedom on a flat Adelaide surface. This has a very end-of-term feel to it. 

Runs could well be the order of the day, not least because both units have been profligate in the field. Renegades conceded more than 200 against Perth only on Thursday while Strikers leaked 232 against the same at this venue. There's minimal turnaround for Renegades from that defeat versus Scorchers so bowlers could be a little weary.

The both teams to score 160 at 5/61.84 may be the easiest route to profit but playing more risky numbers for 170, 180 and 190 have appeal at 17/102.70, 10/34.33 and 13/27.50 respectively with Sportsbook..

In terms of players to follow Jamie Overton has been consistently underrated on the markets. He has enhanced his reputation for top bowler wins and the 7/24.50 is more than generous given how often he wins. 

And if we're right about runs then Matt Short to deliver and steal the match gong at 7/18.00 has appeal. Short is hugely reliable and has shown his form has not suffered despite Strikers' disappointing returns. 

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