West Indies v Australia Third Test Tips: Can Windies stop dark destroyer Starc?

• West Indies can be competitive again

• Bowlers expected to dominate in Jamaica

• Starc's the pink ball king

• Hosts to make batting changes

• Shorting runs in-play looks solid

West Indies v Australia
Saturday 12 July, 19:30
TV: Live on TNT

West Indies v Australia Third Test team news

West Indies find themselves 2-0 down and perhaps a little aggrieved. They have been bang in this series after both first-innings but have had each game taken away from them by some typically gritty middle-order partnerships from the Aussies. And then fourth innings pitches, which had variable bounce from ball one anyway, have done the rest.

A day-night Test with the pink ball keeps them keen. But any respite for their batters seems unlikely. They are expected to make changes at the top of the order to try to find a combination that works or a batter than can dig in. Kraigg Brathwaite and Keacy Carty appear to be the most vulnerable. Mikyle Louis, Kevlon Anderson or Trevin Imlach could come in.

There is nothing wrong with the core bowling group. With Shamar Joseph, Alzarri Joseph and Jayden Seales so effective they don't really need a fourth seamer in Anderson Philip. It would make sense to pick the extra batter.

Possible WI XI:  Brathwaite, Campbell, Imlach/Anderson, Louis, King, Hope, Greaves, Chase, Alzarri, Shamar, Seales

Australia have problems. It's just whether they decide to recognise them and do something about it. No-one can reckon that Sam Konstas in the opening role and Cameron Green, even if he got a score in Grenada, at No 3 are the right combination. 

Marnus Labuschagne, picked in the squad and almost immediately informed he wouldn't play, surely has to come back in at some stage either to open or to bat first down. The former gives them options with Green and potentially an extra batter in the middle order but Steve Smith would have to bat No 3.

The bowling is excellent. Mitchell Starc, the pink-ball specialist with more day-night Test wickets than anyone plays his 100th Test.

Possible Australia XI:  Khawaja, Konstas/Labuschagne, Green, Smith, Head, Webster, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Lyon

West Indies v Australia Third Test pitch report

There have been only three Tests in Sabina Park in the last five years. All have produced results. With an average runs per wicket of 21 we don't expect a bat-dominated Test, not least because the pink ball is a swinger and then the impact of the lights. Batting when conditions are at their best is key. The highest score in all innings in those three Tests is 302. 

A reminder that batting is trickier in day-nights, which isn't surprising. The batting average is 24.8 opposed to 29.4 over the same study period (ie when day-nighters started) and with the same country hosts. 

Shorting West Indies runs following any semblance of a partnership has paid off handsomely so far. Batting has tended to get a little easier after the 25-over mark. That might not be the case here. In an ideal world they're two down quickly then a 40-50 run partnership occurs and then we sell in the 240s. 

West Indies v Australia Third Test match prediction

West Indies are 7.206/1, Australia 1.251/4 and the draw 13.525/2. The draw can not be ruled out  because of a poor weather forecast with rain on the first four days. A big chunk of overs would need to be lost, though, as conditions may just add to the probability that this is another one for the bowlers.

So can we take a chance on West Indies. Why not? They have shown they can be in the game at the halfway point and may count themselves unfortunate that the toss went against them each time. Australia chasing 200-odd in the fourth may well have resulted in this being a decider.

Batting and bowling at the right time with the pink ball could be crucial. When that will be remains to be seen. This isn't to say that this is a choice affairr (or close) but Windies can probably be considered to be a little shorter. The gulf may well be reduced between the two by a day-nighter further after the hit-hero sporting surfaces. 

A strategy against Starc will be needed and some stickability but West Indies should be probably have a 5 after their name so a there's fair value they cause a surprise. And don't forget Shamar Joseph shocked the Aussies Down Under in that day-nighter when Australia were blitzed chasing 216.

West Indies v Australia Third Test player bets

Starc is the day-night destroyer. He has won top first-innings bowler six times in his 13 day-night Tests so top Aussie is the obvious first port of call at 13/53.60. For performance markets (keep an eye on Sportsbook updates) he is averaging 142 per game. For the ball with the Windies, Shamar's seven wickets in that pink-ball destruction Down Under will make him popular at the same price.  

With the bat, Travis Head is the top day-night Test runscorer so is hardly a mug wager at 4/15.00 with Sportsbook for first-dig top Aussie. But this is a Test where 40-odd could win it if we're right about bowlers dominating. Pat Cummins for the tourists at 30s and Justin Greaves at 9s may be options.

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