South Africa v Australia Second ODI Tips: More spin woe for Aussies incoming

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Sunday 27 September, 09.00
TV: Sky Sports

South Africa v Australia second ODI team news

South Africa are 1-0 up and buzzing. Their mood is also likely enhanced by the return of Aiden Markram, who was slated to come in after game one.

Markram's will make their batting stronger, replacing Tony de Zorzi in the opening slot. But they already boast the excellent Matt Breetzke, who underlined why he is considered the best in the biz with a sublime ton in Durban.

South Africa's third-string bowling attack (Messrs Rabada, Ngidi, Maphaka and Burger are all absent) came under significant pressure but the left-arm spin of Keshav Maharaj won the day. His four wickets turned the tide and the hosts can enjoy the threat that he, and Bjorn Fortuin pose. Fortuin is also left-arm kryptonite to the Aussies.

Probable XI: De Kock, Markram, Bavuma, Breetzke, Rickleton, Miller, M Jansen, C Bosch, Coetzee, Fortuin, Maharaj

Australia were dominating a stiff chase of 298 in Kingsmead with Mitch Marsh and Travis Head putting on 90 runs by the tenth over. Then Maharaj and Fortuin combined to take six wickets between them. It highlighted a persistent weakness for Australia against that style.

There should be changes. Pat Cummins wasn't involved in game one but Jack Edwards will almost certainly lose his spot if Cummins is ready. Cameron Green didn't bowl and failed again with the bat and there may be schools of thought taking a register that he is never going to fulfil his potential.

Given his lack of bowling it would make sense if Alex Carey, who also sat out in Durban, came back in to give the batting some much-needed solidity.

Probable XI: Marsh, Head, Connolly, Inglis, Renshaw, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Ellis, Hazlewood, Zampa

South Africa v Australia second ODI pitch report 

The average first-innings total at The Wanderers in Jo'burg is 267 with a mark of 227 in the second in the last 30. Despite this there is a 57% chase bias over the study period. The venue has a reputation for being fair to bat and bowler so we could be in for a closely-fought affair.

The last ODI was played in 2024 with Pakistan's 308 winning the day batting first. There was a low-scorer when India rolled the hosts for just 116 the year before. Also in 2023 South Africa amassed 315 against Australia, bowling their rivals out for 193. No prices for working out that Maharaj had a say. He took four wickets with Marco Jansen five. There are six survivors from that game in the potential Aussie XI.

Given the numbers and Australia's weakness, their total match runs line at under 274.5 has appeal at 10/111.91. It is far in advance of their total averages over the last 10 and 30 games at 239 and 229 respectively.

South Africa v Australia second ODI match prediction 

Australia remain favourites despite a comprehensive defeat in Durban. It is not surprising. With the Big Guns like Pat Cummins and Alex Carey expected to come back into the XI, they will be stronger. South Africa, meanwhile, are still wrestling with being shorn of their best fast bowlers.

Still, Australia's Achilles heel is there for all to see. Since the 2023 World Cup, which they won, of course, no team has a lower average in ODI against that style of bowling. Maharaj and Fortuin working in tandem have the potential to change the game again.

That lends itself neatly to an in-play strategy. Batting first or second, Australia can be taken on when those two are brought on to bowl. That means we could be laying at skinny odds on the Exchange if they're batting first or potentially closer to even money in a chase which they are bossing at the start.

South Africa v Australia second ODI player tips 

Maharaj remains underrated at 7/24.50 for top South Africa wicket-taker. He has now won six from the last 13. Splitting stakes with Fortuin at 4/15.00 is not the worst idea, either. You could find yourself in a position where the pair dead heat for most number of wickets, in which case the bowler with the fewest number of runs conceded takes the spoils.

Other players worth a follow include Breetzke. His player performance quote (1pt per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket) at overs 32.5 looks cheap. He has a remarkable record, beating the quote in ten of his 15 ODI.

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