Australia v Pakistan First Test Tips: Pakistan set for misery in Perth

• Australia short favourites

• Khawaja a follow for runs

• Perth pitch to be pacy

Australia v Pakistan
Thuirsday 14 December, 02.20
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Australia v Pakistan First Test team news

Australia have confirmed only one change to their XI since the final Ashes Test with a fit-again Nathan Lyon back to replace Todd Murphy. Travis Head has also been made a vice-captain.

There have been distractions in the build-up over David Warner's swansong. This will be his final series and the likes of Mitchell Johnson have said that a man who was banned for cheating, and whose form has collpased, shouldn't be able to pick his last Test.

Confirmed XI: Khawaja, Warner, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, M Marsh, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Lyon

Pakistan's bowling prowess is thin on the ground. Just as it was when they last toured Australia. It didn't end well.

Aamer Jamal and Khurram Shahzad, both pacers, will debut with Shaheen Shah Afridi leading the attack. They have picked only a part-time spinner in Agha Salman. That means Noman Ali, whose numbers suggested he could be more than useful, does not play.

Sarfaraz Ahmed will take the gloves and the temptation to play Mohammad Rizwan as a specialist batter has been resisted.

Confirmed XI: Imam, Shafique, Masood, Babar, Shakeel, Sarfaraz, Agha, Faheem, Afridi, Jamal, Shahzad

Australia v Pakistan First Test pitch report

The Optus Stadium groundsman has said a fast, hard and bouncy pitch is expected. That's not good news for Pakistan who will find conditions alien, particularly after they warmned up on a sluggish surface against the Prime Minister's XI.

Pakistan have busted 325 four times in their first-innings in Australia in their last 11 attempts. On the last tour in 2019 they managed 240 and 302 in Brisbane and Adelaide respectively. Laying 325 or more at around that 2.305/4 mark is a strong option. On the same market there could be some very cheap lays at 250 and 225 or more.

Australia took 580 and 589 off Pakistan in those 2019 games as they batted only twice to win by huge margins. A total of 450 should be a minimum but the market is likely to recognise that.

Australia v Pakistan First Test match odds

Australia are no better than 1.282/7 with Pakistan 9.6017/2 and the draw 8.6015/2. Considering the strengths of the XIs and Pakistan's record of 14 consecutive defeats Down Under, those with deep pockets may feel justified in claiming that's a good Aussie price.

The best way of taking something chunky is perhaps hoping for Pakistan to knuckle down in the first innings. A 100-run partnership for one of the first three wickets could see the draw price shoot down for a trade. It's the market's natural reaction to early runs. Ideally it would follow a monster Australia score.

Otherwise we're keeping an eye on no day five with similar rationale. Anything around 1.804/5 in-play should be snaffled.

Australia v Pakistan First Test player bets

We await Sportsbook prices as we have identified players to follow. On a potentially flat wicket against a weak attack, it's not smart to plump for one Aussie batter to star. So Usman Khawaja's odds for a first-innings 50 will have appeal. He has an incredible win-rate on top bat with nine from the last 22.

For the record, Warner and Steve Smith have one and three wins in 22 and 24 respectively.

For Pakistan Babar Azam is a potential for a 50. He has six wins on top bat in the last 12 although we note new skip Shan Masood's double in the warm-up and strong pace play. Faheem Ashraf will be an option for top bat at around 25s.

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