Australia v India Fifth Test In-Play Tips: Just back Pat at 19/1

Australia v India
Friday 3 December, 23:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v India Fifth Test prediction

Australia are in control after India's batting on the field matched their chaos off it. But the SCG pitch may give them a route to redemption and a series-saving success.

At the moment, the scorecard looks tough for the visitors. They were rolled for 185. Jasprit Bumrah removed Usman Khawaja on the last ball of the day to leave Australia nine for one. The match odds market has Australia are 1.434/9 favourites and India 3.953/1.

So there is more than a suspicion that this wicket is bad enough to keep India keen. They always say don't judge a surface until both teams have batted on it but the markets seem pretty clear that Australia could also find batting challenging.

It is a bizarre surface. Green and spongy it looks as though it is underprepared. When Shubman Gill sent back Virat Kohli for a run before lunch, Kohli's quick turn left a gouge in the track.

With rain forecast on day two, it is unlikely to start to dry out or firm up. Sportsbook are clear that a huge lead looks unlikely. They go under 270.5 at 5/61.84. The Exchange line is even lower for sellers at 265.5.

The worry with those shorts is that India are reliant on Bumrah doing much of the work. He doesn't have the same support group as, say, Scott Boland who was metronomic for his four wickets with pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc threatening. Where will the pressure come from the other end?

At least India appear to have got the selection right in one sense with Prasidh Krishna joining Bumrah and Siraj. Krishna is ideally suited to a green seamer.

There remains a nagging doubt, however, that helpful pitch or not, India are a fractured team. Rohit Sharma's no-show in this Test is extraordinary. Rumours have swirled about a dressing-room bust up and Rohit, as leader, failing to front up in such a huge game is a stunner.

In conditions such as these, India need cohesive, clear leadership. Bumrah has to do all that on his own, too. Before this game we advised India as the bet with the caveat that they batted first.

Their first-innings total could well prove to be more than competitive. But it is an understatement to say that we didn't expect to have to add a second caveat that their captain must not either be dropped or have removed himself from the fray.

Clear view on Konstas

Australia is in love with Sam Konstas. But the markets are significantly unimpressed. Sportsbook give a clear indication of what they think about his suitability for the opening role with some miniscule quotes on his first-innings runs.

Despite having seven to his name, they go as short as 4/71.57 that he manages to bust 25. Ingenue or not, a runs quote at 18 overs/unders is not that unusual but we are normally seeing 5/61.84 the pair offered.

Similarly, quotes of 1/101.10 for no 50 and 1/251.04 for to reach 75. They are are such strong opinions that it is tempting to take a risk and bet one of them for overs. Is he 5/42.25 for another 18 for example?

Ultimately, though, it is hard not to agree. Konstas is all temperament at the moment. He's got guts and bravado. Which is fine. But on this pitch you need technique and it is questionable whether he can survive against a moving ball.

With runs at a premium, a potentially dodgy wicket and one man already out, Pat Cummins has been cut from only 22s to 19/120.00 for top bat. This could be another innings where 40 or 50 wins it. Cummins is value for a thrash and bash at the end for a small stake. He has been in good touch this series.

Expect careful start from Aussies

Where they might be a strong angle is on Australia's resumption. Konstas ramp shots are flies in ointments but Sportsbook ar expecting three runs an over for the next seven overs on their 10-over run market. This feels like a sell at even money under 29.5.

When you consider that Bumrah will bowl three of those and has an economy rate of 2.7 in all conditions in this series, then Siraj is going to have to be wasteful not to give us a winner. Surely Australia will be only focussed on survival and getting through the first hour. If they can build a partnership then they go a long way to winning the series. It is helpful that Marnus Labuschagne, not known for his aggression in flat wickets, is next in.

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