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India may not be short enough to retain title
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Seeded Super Eight group aids England
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India are the right favourites
Who can stop India? It is a question not exclusive to the T20 World Cup. Unstoppable on the field, unstoppable off it.
An 82% win rate in T20 since the last World Cup underlines their dominance. Their grip on the ICC likewise. It is important to understand when considering a bet on this tournament that the two are not unrelated.
When India won the last World Cup they were assisted by being the only team who knew where they would play knockout matches, affording them the opportunity to pick a related squad. This time, Bangladesh have been thrown out because they wouldn't travel to India to play their matches due to political tensions. When India refused to go to Pakistan for the Champions Trophy for the same, heaven and then earth was moved to accommodate them.
As a result of Bangladesh's exclusion, Pakistan have refused to play India in their Group A match where the top two go through. This almost guarantees India's progression to the Super Eight. It also may eventually mean they get a bye to the final were Pakistan to qualify for the last four and be drawn against their rivals.
For the second-successive tournament the T20 World Cup lacks sporting integrity. Which is a shame because India's thrusting, brilliant team need no help whatsoever. They have taken hitting to new levels, while a bowling unit, which could combine the pace and skill of Arhsdeep Singh and Jasprit Bumrah with the artistry of Varun Chakravarthy and Kuldeep Yadav, is unrivalled.
The 4/61.67 offered by Betfair Sportsbook that India reach the final could be a gift. Otherwise we're left wondering whether the 13/102.30 about retaining their title is short enough. They could have a bad day at the office in one of the two knockouts but is that really worthy rationale?
Group stage
Group A: India, USA, Pakistan, Netherlands, Namibia
Group B: Australia, Sri Lanka, Zimbabwe, Ireland, Oman
Group C: England, West Indies, Scotland, Nepal
Group D: South Africa, New Zealand, Afghanistan, Canada, UAE
Back England to reach final
What we're looking for, then, is a disruptor. A team that is capable of putting India under pressure with something chaotic or exceptional. England fit the bill.
Second to India on batting power since the end of the last World Cup, they are the most likely to be able to go shot for shot. This is the format in which England's no fear, run-towards-danger approach actually works. It is England, not India, who became the first team to breach the 300 mark outside Associate head-to-heads.
If batting run rates are key, and they should be in a competition where we expect the ability to chase in excess of 200 will be important, then England are underrated. Following Australia's 3-0 hammering in Pakistan and England's whitewash in Sri Lanka, the direction of travel suggests it is they, not their Antipodean rivals, who should be second favourites.
Seeded Super Eight Group 1
- India, Australia, West Indies, South Africa
Seeded Super Eight Group 2
- England, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
England are assisted by a friendly Super Eight draw. Regardless of where they finish in the initial group phase (first or second), and likewise for the other seeded teams, they avoid India, Australia and South Africa until the semi-final stage. If the 5/16.00 about outright glory is not for you then the 9/52.80 they make the final is value.
It would take a major loss of form for England not to make the last four. And even if they had to overcome India in the semi, Harry Brook and co. would be skinnier than the 9/52.80 on match odds.
Sure there are worries about their bowling (the same goes for almost all teams bar India and Afghanistan) but it is to be hoped that Adil Rashid has a big tournament, while Jofra Archer's availability gives them an x-factor.
Indeed, betting Australia or South Africa seems tough considering one of them will have to outperform India in the Super Eight. England's group has the feel of an easier section. To that end the bigger-priced New Zealand outfit at 11/112.00 are far from a mug wager.
Efficient and organised, New Zealand have had the benefit of warming up for this against India, even taking a win off them. Previous worries about a stodgy batting line-up can be dismissed if they pair Tim Seifert and Finn Allen at the top of the order.
West Indies will prove popular at big numbers. Not here, though. They don't appear to be good enough to finish in the top two from India, Australia and South Africa.
Back England to reach final