- India's batters have dominated New Zealand in recent meetings
- Both teams to score 170 coupled with an India win is the bet
- Ahmedabad pitch another one for batters
- Seifert may be able to frustrate
- For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here
India v New Zealand
Sunday 8 March, 13.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
India v New Zealand T20WC Final team news
India have gone into a different gear with their batting. They destroyed England's bowling unit, which had been impressive, at the Wankhede to book their final spot and they have problem-solved without hubris.
Splitting their left handers in the top three by returning Sanju Samson to the XI has been a masterstroke. Samson couldn't buy a score in the run-up to the competition so his comeback has been impressive.
There may be legitimate concerns about their bowlers considering England got within seven runs of their improbable target. Jasprit Bumrah was the difference. Going at eight RPO in a 12 RPO game was absurd. India may consider dropping the expensive Varun Chakravarthy for Kuldeep Yadav.
Possible India XI: Samson, Abhishek, Ishan, Tilak, Sky, Hardik, Dube, Axar, Kuldeep, arshdeep, Bumrah
New Zealand, in a tournament of few upsets, got one when it counted. They produced a near-perfect performance to knock out a powerful South Africa line-up. Their evolution to a blitzing team on the eve of the tournament by pairing Tim Seifert and Finn Allen up top has paid dividends.
The emergence of Cole McConchie as a spin all-rounder reliable enough to deputise for Michael Bracewell has been a major reason for progression. His two wickets in the second over of the match put the Kiwis on course.
But they may need to be smart in selection. Against such a power-packed India batting unit, the likes of Jimmy Neesham and Rachin Ravindra could be vulnerable as fifth and sixth options. Do they need another specialist option in there, such as Jacob Duffy?.
Probable New Zealand XI: Seifert, Allen, Ravindra, CHapman, Phillips, Mitchell, Santner, McConchie, Neesham, Henry, Ferguson
India v New Zealand T20WC Final pitch report
Ahmedabad has been one for the batters. The lowest first-innings score has been New Zealand's 175 against South Africa. More than 185 has been busted in four of the six matches played in this tournament. Four teams batting first have also gone on to win (if we include South Africa's win against Afghanistan in a double Super Over).
That suggests scoreboard pressure is at play. From all 14 T20i eight have been won by the defender. If we include IPL matches in the filter and add in night matches only, however, there is a pretty even split over the 38 matches. The runs per over at 8.88 backs up the suggestion that this is one for the batters.
India v New Zealand T20WC Final match prediction
New Zealand face an uneviable task. And it is one with which they are all too familiar. They must somehow stop India's batters, something they managed only once in five meetings in a series in India in January.
It was a brutal beating for the Kiwis. They conceded 238, 209 (in a chase) and 271. And in a low chase of 153, India got home with ten overs and eight wickets to spare. They know what is coming.
The toss, then, is crucial. If it goes against New Zealand they are likely to face a target of 200-plus. Backing them pre-toss at 3.2011/5 doesn't feel like a smart strategy. They should be pretty close to the same price batting first while they could be significantly bigger after the break.
Finding betting options to boost an India win seem like the smart option, as they were for their semi-final. The 6/52.20 that India win and both teams score 170 is solid. The Kiwis are far from mugs with the bat and we do expect them, as they have done in the head-to-heads, to give a good account of themselves.
Back India win & both teams to score 170
India v New Zealand T20WC Final player tips
There's not a huge amount of win-rate action at this stage of the tournament although Tim Seifert is now firmly in the win zone for top Kiwi at 16/54.20. The 'batter's game' obsession, however, could produce a winner on the man of the match market. As stated previously, there is a strong relationship between the top runscorer for the team that wins and the gong. And it hold regardless of what a bowler may have done. Samson's win against England the perfect example. Despite Bumrah being the clear matchwinner for brilliance and accuracy while all those aorund him were flayed, the adjudicators only see runs scored as the most important currency.
Ishan Kishan and Suryakumar Yadav could fit the bill. Both took the Kiwi bowlers to task in that five-match series in January, busting 210 runs each at huge strike rates. Sky is 10/111.00 and Ishan 9/110.00.